In 2022, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made significant inroads into the Samajwadi Party's fortress, seizing control of the Rampur Lok Sabha seat during the by-election. Rampur is known as the stronghold of SP leader Azam Khan. Although he is currently incarcerated, his political influence remains intact in Rampur.
Recently, a SP leader invited party chief Akhilesh Yadav to contest from here while in Sitapur jail to uplift the workers' morale. However, defying opposition within the Azam camp, Yadav fielded Maulana Mohibullah Nadvi from the Rampur Lok Sabha seat, whereas the BJP introduced their current MP Ghanshyam Lodhi into the political arena.
Locals allege that Nadvi is an outsider parachuted in by Yadav since Azam Khan isn't contesting. Maulana Nadvi originates nearly 70-80 kilometers away from Rampur, in the Suar-Tanda region of the constituency.
From Cleric to Political Candidate
Without Azam Khan's endorsement, the SP candidate faces the challenge of securing the people's mandate in Rampur. Hence, Nadvi is diligently meeting with Khan's loyalists and key local leaders. Abdul Salam, known as a leader from the Azam camp and belonging to the Turk community like Nadvi, recently filed as an independent but now supports the SP alliance candidate.
Nadvi shares his journey from his ancestral home in rural Rampur to becoming a cleric in a mosque near the Indian Parliament. 'I led prayers for Dr APJ Abdul Kalam in 2005... His role and passion for the nation always inspired me... Seeing him made me want to be like him, but I had no foothold in politics. A few months ago, I met the SP supremo and offered some suggestions. He liked my ideas and encouraged me to file my nomination from Rampur,' he conveyed.
Does Azam Khan endorse him?
In answering this question, he believes Khan's blessing is essential for victory in Rampur. While noting that Azam Raja and Asim Khan are not separate entities but part of the SP, he adds that sometimes the family head's words need to be heeded.
BJP's Social Engineering
The BJP is strategically fielding winning candidates, with Ghanshyam Lodhi securing a spectacular victory here in the 2022 by-election. Despite a predominantly Muslim electorate, BJP's social engineering strategy aims to consolidate votes from Hindus and other communities as well. Lodhi believes that communities like Lodh, Rajput, Kamera, Saini, Pal, Kashyap, Kurmi, Jatav, and even Yadav could support the BJP in this region.
Lodhi, signaling the end of Rampur as a hot seat, touts the Modi wave at the center and a personal surge in Rampur. Criticizing the SP for their politics of appeasement and religion, he asserts that voters are no longer naive and will judge who is better for Rampur, ensuring no outsider gets the vote.
The Math of Votes in Rampur
Muslims: 50.57%
Hindus: 45.97%
Sikhs: 2.8%
Christians: 0.39%
Scheduled Castes (SC): 13.2%
25.2% live in urban areas, 74.8% in rural zones
In the compelling story of the 2019 elections, Azam Khan triumphed over BJP candidate Jaya Prada by a margin of 1.10 lakh votes. However, times have changed, and so has the political equation in Rampur. The BJP has seen a rising curve of support in the by-elections following Khan's sentencing in 2019, culminating in Lodhi's victory in the 2022 by-election and Akash Saxena's win in the December 2022 assembly elections over the SP's Azam Raja by 33,000 votes.
Azam Khan's Decades of Dominance
Azam Khan has been a defining figure in Rampur politics, serving as an MLA ten times and once as an MP. Despite his absence from the 2024 election battlefield due to incarceration, BJP has been tightening its grip on his turf since 2019.
In March 2022, a Rampur court sentenced Khan to 7 years for forcefully demolishing a home in Dungarpur in 2016, imposing an 8-lakh penalty. It was the fifth case resulting in his conviction, with acquittals in two others.
An electorate voices concern that the SP has possibly made a strategic blunder by fielding an unfamiliar Maulana, thus ceding the seat to the BJP.
