In December 2025, tensions between the United States and Venezuela have reached new heights. President Donald Trump's administration has deployed warships, submarines, and F-35 fighter jets in the Caribbean Sea. On December 10, an oil tanker was seized, accused by the US of smuggling 'sanctioned oil,' although Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro describes it as 'maritime piracy.' This entire scenario appears to be about controlling Venezuela's massive oil reserves and breaking the influence of Russia and China.
The Trump administration has increased pressure on Venezuela, labeling it as a 'drug trafficking hub.' In August 2025, Trump issued a secret order granting the Pentagon permission to target Latin American drug cartels. Venezuela's 'Cartel de los Soles' and 'Tren de Aragua' gang have been declared foreign terrorist organizations.
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Since September, the US has conducted airstrikes on over 20 boats in the Caribbean, resulting in 87 casualties. However, experts argue the true motive is to take control of Venezuela’s oil. Trump labeled Maduro a 'drug kingpin' and threatened attacks on oil tankers.
On December 1, Trump issued an ultimatum to Maduro via phone, demanding he 'immediately relinquish power.' America’s 'Operation Southern Spear' is the largest military campaign in the Caribbean in decades, involving aircraft carriers like the USS Gerald R Ford. Critics say it's a scheme to oust Maduro, similar to US actions in Cuba and Nicaragua previously.
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Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world – over 303 billion barrels, surpassing even Saudi Arabia. Being a neighbor, Washington doesn't want to see it as a foe. Beyond oil, its geopolitical significance is immense. Alliances with Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba have made it a perceived threat to America. Russia has invested in oil production, China has provided loans, and Iran has supplied drones and weapons.
Source: aajtak
In 2023, Venezuela exported just $4 billion worth of oil (compared to Saudi Arabia's $181 billion), yet increasing production could disrupt global energy markets. Should Maduro fall, it would be a significant setback for Russia and China in Latin America. The oil factor is the reason the US views it as a 'petrostate,' where resources bring poverty instead of wealth.
The Maduro government appears strong, but the challenges are monumental. Venezuela has intensified military exercises, training militias. Over a million civilian soldiers are ready. However, the economy is in ruins… inflation is over 1000%, hunger is rampant, and 8 million people have fled the country.
US sanctions have halted oil sales, reducing revenue by 90%. The military is outdated – 100,000 regular soldiers, but aging equipment. Still, Maduro threatened to jail opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (Nobel Peace Prize winner, 2025) and maintains military support. Intelligence aid from Cuba, drones from Iran, and weapons from Russia continue to arrive.
Source: aajtak
Experts state that in a full-scale war, Venezuela wouldn't stand alone. Yet diplomatic channels remain open. Trump has indicated that immediate war is unlikely. Maduro insists they will defend their sovereignty.
Indeed, Russia remains Venezuela's strongest supporter. On December 11, Putin assured Maduro of 'full support' over the phone and discussed 'strategic partnership.'
Russia condemned the US 'aggression' at the UN. Despite the Ukraine conflict, Russia dispatched two military cargo planes for missile, radar, aircraft upgrades, and drone training. In November, 120 Russian military advisors arrived, training infantry, special forces, and signal intelligence.
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Analysts say Russia wouldn't commit troops, given its engagement in Ukraine. This is 'economy of force' – maximizing impact with minimal resources. If America attacks, Russia and China will block in the UN, apply diplomatic pressure, and provide arms (like the S-400) if needed.
Trump's 'maximum pressure' aims to remove Maduro or seize oil, risking provocation with Russia-China. Venezuela could endure if allies stand firm, but prolonged conflict would bring devastation – oil prices could soar above $100 a barrel. The world is watching this 'new cold war' – will it remain limited to sanctions, or escalate to real confrontation? The UN has declared US assaults 'in violation of international law.'
