The recently concluded Uttar Pradesh elections witnessed multiple narratives unfolding. Castes that overwhelmingly supported the BJP in 2019 appeared fragmented by numerous tales of division. Journalists and surveyors in the field concurred that conditions differed from the resounding chants for Modi that dominated the 2019 campaign. This time around, neither the Modi fervor nor a palpable current of the Ram Temple issue was evident.
However, Axis My India's poll figures tell a different tale. The Modi chants and the Ram Temple issue seemingly worked as a silent current favoring the BJP and NDA. Noteworthy is the encountered dispersal within the OBC and Dalit castes that generally endorse the BJP and NDA.
Voter wrath within castes, yet no clear impact at the ballot box
Thus, the question arises: given the OBC fragmentation and oppositional leanings among Kurmis, Mauryas, Lodhs, and non-Jaatav Dalits towards SP-Congress along with a significant shift from the INDIA alliance, how is it that NDA's seat count appears to be increasing rather than diminishing? Where did the disgruntled Thakur votes ultimately go?
Source: aajtak
Firstly, let's delve into the caste-specific data from Axis My India. It is evident that the 'INDIA' alliance has made significant inroads into BJP's vote bank this election. One must note that during the last UP elections, the SP and BSP formed an alliance, unlike the existence of an 'INDIA' alliance. This time around, BSP is absent from the alliance, which happens to consist of Congress and SP - highlighting probable vote shifts from BSP's previous tally in a significant manner.
Non-Jaatav-Dalit votes show a 9% drop for NDA
Axis My India's caste-based data indicates that the highest loss for NDA was among non-Jaatav-Dalits. From receiving 60% of this demographic's vote in 2019, the percentage fell by 9%, leaving NDA with 51%. Whereas for Jaatav-Dalit votes, the loss is negligible, down only 1% from the previous 32%.
A significant reduction in Muslim support
The Muslim vote share for the NDA was also halved this election. The NDA, which garnered 12% of the Muslim vote in 2019, saw it decline to just 6%.
Where did 'INDIA's' vote share surge from?
A look at the 'INDIA' alliance's vote share captured by the India Today- Axis My India surveys shows that there was a 7% increase in Jaatav votes compared to 2019, a 14% hike in non-Jaatav-Dalit votes, and a significant bump in Yadav and Muslim votes, up to 35% and 38% respectively, indicating a sharp swing towards the 'INDIA' alliance.
Source: aajtak
BSP faces major losses
BSP suffered the greatest blow in these elections, with a tremendous shift of votes towards other parties, particularly the 'INDIA' alliance, and a little respite coming from the NDA.
