In Bihar's political landscape, Chirag Paswan has once again become a pivotal figure. All eyes are on the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). While being a part of the NDA, Chirag's attitude has stirred anxiety among many. By targeting Nitish Kumar on law and order in Bihar, it seems as if Chirag is steering away from NDA's alignment. Union Minister and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) leader Jitan Ram Manjhi is a key player in Bihar politics under NDA.
Comparing Chirag Paswan to Mahabharata's Abhimanyu, Manjhi says young leaders sometimes fail to grasp governance complexities. Manjhi mentions that even trusted individuals occasionally misinterpret situations and make statements. Chirag Paswan is an able leader within the NDA, but being young, he may not fully comprehend the intricacies. Abhimanyu moved forward with full vigor, yet something fell short. Manjhi's words are worth noting. The real question is, does Chirag have external encouragement to enter the labyrinth?
This is why, today in Bihar, people recall the 2020 slogan 'No Grudge Against Modi, Beware Nitish.' Observing Chirag's statements and plans, the question arises: is Chirag Paswan reconnecting with his past strategies? Moreover, is this coordinated with BJP's plan?
What Happened in the 2020 Assembly Elections?
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag Paswan detached his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) from the NDA, raising the slogan 'No Grudge Against Modi, Beware Nitish.' This decision clearly aimed to weaken Nitish Kumar. Following this strategy, Chirag fielded candidates against JDU across 137 seats but none against BJP. Chirag's plan worked.
JDU's seats dropped from 115 to 43, leading to its diminished role in the NDA alliance as BJP strengthened with 74 seats. Despite these developments, Nitish Kumar's unique persona kept BJP from sidelining him.
The government was re-established in Bihar with Nitish as the face. However, LJP's presence in Bihar suffered, securing only one seat. Clearly, had Chirag contested while remaining with NDA, his party would have secured more seats. However, weakening Nitish benefited Chirag later with a central ministerial post.
Chirag's frequent claims of being Prime Minister Narendra Modi's loyal supporter and his displayed dedication to BJP indicate his strategy might be directed by BJP.
2025 Scenario: Old Slogan, New Strategy?
As preparations for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections progress, Chirag Paswan gains attention again. Initially threatening to contest all 243 seats, he prompted surprise across NDA spectrums.
Currently, Chirag Paswan is a part of NDA and serves as the Minister of Food Processing Industries in Modi's government. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, his party won all five allotted seats in Bihar, enhancing his political stature. This performance positions him as a strong ally within NDA. Nonetheless, his party's exclusion from Bihar's NDA government led by Nitish Kumar fuels his continued criticism of its policies, particularly on law and order.
Chirag's Fierce Criticism of Nitish Kumar
-Responding to the Nalanda double homicide, Chirag remarked that crime is skyrocketing in Bihar, and such incidents in the Chief Minister's home district reflect criminals' audacity.
-After the murder of businessman Gopal Khemka in Patna, Chirag accused the Nitish government, stating that the administration once known for good governance now faces alarming law and order conditions.
-Addressing a letter after a brutal rape and murder of a young Dalit girl in Muzaffarpur, Chirag described it as not only inhumane but also indicative of Bihar's societal and constitutional failure.
Indirect Attacks on Nitish
-Announcing his participation in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag noted that his Bihar return concerns many, hinting at imminent obstructions presumed targeted at Nitish Kumar and JDU.
-Arun Bharti, Nitish Kumar's brother-in-law, stated that safeguarding national interests requires addressing societal voices responsibly within alliances, indirectly hinting at Nitish.
BJP's Dual Benefits and Chirag's Role
Journalist and writer Sameer Chougankar expresses that BJP has maintained strategic silence. BJP's leadership hasn't advised Chirag to temper his rhetoric. In the 2020 Assembly elections, Chirag, the equivalent of Modi's Hanuman, shook Nitish's reign.
During those elections, Chirag contested separately from NDA, contributing to NDA losses in 42 seats and impacted JDU's 36-seat, VIP's 4-seat, and BJP's 1-seat defeat.
Undoubtedly, Chirag's tactics might be inspired by BJP's backing. BJP aims to cement its position in Bihar, possibly by weakening Nitish's JDU.
In fact, BJP might tactically elevate Chirag, attracting Dalit and Mahadalit votes. Bihar's Dalit vote bank constitutes approximately 19%, with the Paswan community (about 5-6%) as a core strength. Recently, at a Bahujan Sankalp Samagam in Rajgir, Nalanda, multiple Dalit and Mahadalit groups joined Chirag. This motivates Chirag. Should Nitish again contest all 243 seats, the Mahagathbandhan alliance may face challenges in key constituencies.
