The voting process for Maharashtra's richest municipality, Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), along with 29 other municipal corporations, concluded peacefully by Thursday evening. Post-voting, the Axis My India exit polls stirred a ripple in Mumbai's political scenario. According to the data, the 'Mahayuti' (BJP-Shinde Sena) is rising with the flag of victory, while the Thackeray brothers' unity appears ineffective.
Out of 227 BMC wards, approximately 1,700 candidates contested. The majority stands at 114 seats, which exit polls suggest BJP+ is comfortably surpassing. All eyes are now on the vote counting starting at 10 AM on Friday, which will determine who wears the crown of power in Mumbai, and whether the Thackerays can hold on to their strong fortress.
Source: aajtak
Who is Winning How Many Seats?
As per Axis My India exit polls, the BJP-led alliance (BJP+) is expected to win between 131 to 151 of the 227 BMC wards, surpassing the majority margin. The alliance led by Uddhav Thackeray, along with Raj Thackeray's MNS, is predicted to secure 58 to 68 seats.
The Congress, having allied with Prakash Ambedkar's VBA at the last minute, may only settle for 12 to 16 seats. This shift depicts a strong potential for change in BMC leadership, shaking the stronghold of the Thackeray family.
Source: aajtak
Voting Percentages
According to the exit polls, the BJP alliance secured 42% of the overall votes, putting it in the lead. The Thackeray brothers' alliance received 32%, while the Congress alliance and others are expected to garner 13% each.
Source: aajtak
Trust in Thackeray Brothers by Marathi Community
Exploring the caste-based voting trends from the exit poll, Thackeray's UBT+ received 49% support from Marathi voters, while BJP+ obtained 30%. For North Indian voters, BJP led significantly with 68% support, and among South Indian voters, they held a 61% advantage. Among Muslim voters, Congress+ received 41% support, UBT+ 28%, and BJP+ only 12%.
Source: aajtak
Who Voted for Whom?
In employment-based voting trends, the BJP alliance received 37% support from the unemployed, while UBT+ received 34%. Among students, BJP+ led with 45%, while UBT+ followed with 35%. In the working class, BJP held 40% of the vote. Among professionals, BJP+ secured 40%, with UBT+ earning 30%. The Congress alliance lagged in all demographics.
Source: aajtak
The First Choice of Women and Youth is BJP
Analyzing gender-based voting trends, women favored the BJP alliance with 44% votes, while UBT+ managed 31%. The Congress alliance and others received 13% and 12% respectively. Among male voters, BJP+ also led with 40%, UBT+ at 33%, Congress+ 13%, and others 14%. This indicates a robust leadership from BJP in both women and men categories.
The Traditional Thackeray Struggle
It is notable that Shiv Sena has dominated the BMC since 1985, except between 1992-96. In the 2017 elections, BJP posed a significant challenge, securing 82 seats, while unified Shiv Sena held 84, retaining the mayor's position. However, circumstances now seem altered with exit polls reflecting minimal impact from Thackeray's rekindled alliance after 20 years.
