Pakistan currently finds itself ensnared in massive turmoil. An open war with Afghanistan has erupted. Meanwhile, in Balochistan, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is launching daily assaults. This raises the pivotal question: Will these twin crises fracture Pakistan? The army led by Chief Aasim Munir is already showing signs of weariness.
How Dangerous is the War with Afghanistan?
From February 21, 2026, Pakistan commenced significant air strikes in Nangarhar, Paktia, and Khost regions of Afghanistan. Pakistan claims that the TTP is using Afghan soil to orchestrate attacks within its borders. In retaliation, on February 26-27, Afghan combatants assaulted Pakistani border posts.
Afghanistan asserts that they killed 40 Pakistani soldiers and seized several posts. In response, Pakistan launched bombings on Kabul and Kandahar. The Defense Minister stated that they are now in an open war with Afghanistan. This conflict isn’t confined to the borders; Pakistan faces daily threats of gunfire and missiles.
Source: aajtak
BLA Attacks: A Challenge for an Already Strained Military
Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province, is experiencing a long-standing separatist conflict spearheaded by the BLA. In the first two months of 2026, BLA launched major attacks on police stations, banks, military camps, and homes. Over 30 civilians and soldiers lost their lives.
The Pakistani military retaliated, claiming to have killed over 200 BLA combatants, yet the attacks persist. Forces remain on high alert in Balochistan, and troops are feeling the pinch due to shortages in weapons and funds.
Source: aajtak
Could These Dual Crises Fragment Pakistan?
The military is stretched thin, fighting on two fronts: the extensive 2600 km Afghan border and in Balochistan, dividing its strength.
The financial burden is immense—daily air strikes, bombs, missiles... all come at a steep price, stressing Pakistan's already fragile economy, leading them to seek loans from the IMF.
Internal dissent is growing—Balochistan’s populace is turning against the army while TTP instigates attacks in Punjab and Khyber. A prolonged battle could lead to increased fatigue and desertions among soldiers.
Tensions with India are simmering. If a fourth front emerges, Pakistan could find itself alarmingly isolated.
Expert Opinions
Both Pakistani and international experts agree that Pakistan, although not on the brink now, faces significant threats if this conflict drags on for another 2-3 months. The USA and China are urging peace. Although China stands as Pakistan's staunch ally, it too advocates for ending the conflict to safeguard economic stability.
Current Situation
Heavy gunfire persists along the Afghan border. Operations continue in Balochistan, yet BLA attacks show no signs of abating. Aasim Munir is engrossed in continuous meetings, but an easy solution remains elusive.
The Afghan war presents a formidable threat to Pakistan. Already tested by the BLA's assaults, the military faces compounded challenges. If both crises escalate in tandem, Pakistan’s military, economy, and unity might endure significant strain. However, for now, disintegration is not imminent.
