Just before the Lok Sabha elections, a significant political shift occurred in Haryana. On Tuesday, CM Manohar Lal Khattar and the entire cabinet resigned, and by evening, Nayab Singh Saini was announced as the new CM. The BJP-JJP alliance, which was in power for over four and a half years, collapsed when seat-sharing talks failed. With assembly elections mere months away, BJP’s bold move is leaving everyone astounded. Yet, BJP has a history of such startling moves before elections that have led to comebacks in several states.
In Gujarat, BJP changed the CM prior to elections and achieved a resounding victory. A similar tactic was employed in Tripura and led to electoral success. Uttarakhand saw two CM replacements, yet BJP emerged victorious. However, the situation in Karnataka was different; despite a CM change, BJP did not triumph. Now, with Haryana’s leadership changed, will BJP repeat its old records?
Did Karnataka Prove a Miscalculation?
The 2023 legislative assembly elections in Karnataka resulted in a significant defeat for the incumbent BJP, with Congress forming the government. Approximately a year and a half before the election, BJP had altered its CM face. In July 2021, then-CM BS Yediyurappa was removed from office, and the reins were handed over to Basavaraj Bommai. Despite intensive efforts by the BJP’s senior leadership to hold on to its southern stronghold, they did not succeed. Congress levied allegations of corruption against Bommai, making it a pivotal issue. Meanwhile, dissatisfaction among prominent leaders, including Yediyurappa, simmered. BJP failed to counter the anti-incumbency or appease disgruntled leaders, ultimately benefiting Congress, which secured victory.
Uttarakhand Witnessed Several Experiments, BJP Reclaimed Power
In Uttarakhand, BJP’s most successful experimentation was seen. The party's leadership realized it was grappling with a formidable anti-incumbency wave. In response, BJP changed their chief ministers twice. When BJP won the 2017 elections, Trivendra Singh Rawat was appointed CM. By 2021, disgruntlement among MLAs against Rawat grew, and the party leadership removed him from the CM post, giving the responsibility to Tirath Singh Rawat on 10th March 2021. However, unable to make a significant impact in governance, administration, and public life, Tirath Singh Rawat was replaced after four months by Pushkar Singh Dhami on 4 July 2021. Under Dhami's leadership, BJP entered the electoral battleground in March 2022 and triumphed.
Gujarat's Success Attributed to Bhupendra Patel
Gujarat has been the political laboratory for BJP. The state holds national significance as it is the home state of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Anticipating the political climate, BJP preemptively switched leadership before the assembly elections in September 2021 by replacing the then CM Vijay Rupani with Bhupendra Patel. This well-timed strategy paid off when BJP achieved a landslide victory in the December 2022 elections, maintaining their unbroken rule in the state.
Northeast's Victory Crowned upon Manik Saha
After dismantling the Left's fortress, BJP unfurled its flag for the first time in Tripura in March 2018. Biplab Deb was tasked with the CM role. However, pre-election leadership was altered. Biplab Deb was sent to the organization, and the CM chair was given to Manik Saha. The election results in Tripura validate BJP's strategy as successful, securing governance again, though the winning margin was slender.
What will happen to Haryana now?
Now the focus turns to Haryana. Why was Khattar, who became CM directly after being elected as an MLA for the first time, replaced just as it happened 9 and a half years ago? A state where BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and where nine out of ten were captured with over fifty percent votes, faces a sudden CM change. The dismissal comes just as Khattar was days away from becoming the longest-serving CM in Haryana’s history. There are murmurs about the swift change despite praise from the PM just 24 hours prior. It was Nayab Singh Saini, once a confidant of Khattar, who now received his benediction to take up the CM post.
BJP has appointed Nayab Singh Saini, a member of the OBC community that represents only 2.9 percent of Haryana's population. This move appears to be a strategic mistake, but it's actually a new form of social engineering. Instead of appeasing the state's largest caste group, BJP is trying to maintain the support of the remaining 75 percent. The appointment of Saini, from the Saini community, as the new leading figure of Haryana demonstrates that BJP's focus isn't on the substantial 25 percent Jat vote share but on the other votes. It wasn’t their first time applying this approach; previously, Manohar Lal Khattar, from the Punjabi community, was made CM when Punjabis accounted for about 8 percent of Haryana’s demographic. The political narrative today isn’t just about Haryana, for BJP often opts for such calculated selections for chief ministership in various states.
