On September 6, Samajwadi Party MP Rajeev Rai's birthday became the talk of political circles in Delhi and Lucknow. The buzz began when Home Minister Amit Shah stepped out of political boundaries to wish Rai a happy birthday. If it was merely about the wishes, the matter would have ended there. However, things escalated as Rajeev Rai allegedly recorded his conversation with Shah, which was widely spread.
Later, the MP clarified on Twitter that an enthusiastic supporter of his recorded the conversation and shared it in a WhatsApp group. This revelation started assessments across Delhi to Lucknow that it might be a strategy to bolster NDA's vote count in the Vice Presidential elections. Many believe Rajeev Rai may not switch to BJP but will certainly cast his vote for the NDA candidate.
The BJP takes every election seriously. Despite NDA's confidence in CP Radhakrishnan's sure win, the party is vigorously working to increase its victory margin. While Amit Shah leads the effort for BJP, the self-declared leader of the INDIA coalition, Rahul Gandhi, is seen vacationing abroad, affecting their campaign. The INDIA alliance does not seem to garner as many votes as anticipated. Here's why and how this is unfolding.
The call from Amit Shah to Rajeev Rai is considered a strategic move by NDA. With 37 MPs, SP is a part of INDIA alliance, and if any shift allegiance to NDA, it would be a significant setback for the opposition. Cross-voting likelihood is estimated based on several factors.
Some MPs from SP, especially those from UP areas where BJP holds significant sway, might cross-vote for local or personal gains. MPs like Rajeev Rai, who received a personal call from senior BJP figures like Amit Shah, could fall into this category. Rai, importantly aware of maintaining ties to benefit his business empire, might take this step in the elections to keep core BJP voters from Ghosi happy.
Political analysts predict that about 3 to 5 SP MPs might cross-vote, especially with promises of local development projects or other political advantages.
Congress holds 99 MPs in Lok Sabha and 26 in Rajya Sabha, tallying to 125 votes, marking the largest component in INDIA alliance. The question of Congress MPs cross-voting arises.
Congress presents this election as a constitutional debate against RSS-BJP ideologies, promoting B. Sudarshan Reddy as a protector of constitutional values. Congress leaders like Kharge and Gandhi organized mock polls and strategy meetings for unity. However, Kharge's dinner cancellation highlighted potential dissatisfaction.
Some Congress MPs, particularly from states with strong BJP influences (like MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan), might cross-vote due to local issues or discontent. For instance, MPs like Nakul Nath in MP face local BJP pressures, considering strategic reasons for cross-voting. Nonetheless, such instances within Congress remain limited.
It is speculated that 2 to 5 MPs might cross-vote due to BJP lobbying, lesser than SP (3-5 MPs), BJD (7-10), BRS (3-4), and independents/small parties (4-6).
Despite lesser cross-vote cases within Congress, examples like 2022 Vice Presidential elections saw Jagdeep Dhankhar winning more than NDA estimates, credited to BJD and BRS but lacking Congress cross-voting. Similarly, Venkaiah Naidu's win involved BJD and other regional cross-votes, but Congress MPs united for opposition candidate Gopalkrishna Gandhi.
In 2019's Lok Sabha Speaker election, Congress MPs refrained from cross-voting, with some opposition parties like BJD, YSRCP supporting Om Birla's win.
NDA has infiltrated several parties and groups that might have supported the INDIA coalition. YSRCP, with 5 Lok Sabha and 7 Rajya Sabha MPs, totals 12 votes. Despite INDIA coalition's request to support B. Sudarshan Reddy, YSRCP declined and hinted at backing NDA candidate CP Radhakrishnan.
YSRCP previously supported NDA in 2022 Vice Presidential and 2019 Lok Sabha Speaker elections. Jagan Mohan Reddy's strategic siding with BJP considers Andhra Pradesh's fragile governance through this alliance.
BJD, holding 7 Rajya Sabha members, remains neutral but supported NDA candidates in previous Vice Presidential elections. Reports suggest BJD MPs might favor NDA, especially under Odisha BJP governance.
BJD supported NDA in recent Parliamentary bills like CAA and farm laws, possibly based on regional issues and improved BJP relations.
BRS, with 4 Rajya Sabha MPs, remains unclear, but internal turmoil (like Telangana's fragile stance) indicates possible NDA leanings.
Independents and small parties like Shiromani Akali Dal (1), ZPM (1), and VOT(TP) (2) are neutral but might vote for NDA, evident from 2017 and 2022 elections' independent support to governing coalitions.
The attitude shown by Congress leaders toward the Vice Presidential election is questionable. They nominated candidates but absconded from the field. Rahul Gandhi should have campaigned rigorously instead of foreign trips. Kharge announced votes based on conscience, but is INDIA alliance putting forth efforts similar to Amit Shah? Are Gandhi, Kharge, Banerjee connecting with MPs unaffiliated with any alliance? Personal engagements could have offered hope. Understanding eventual defeat, INDIA alliance parties might improve relations with winning sides through tactical votes.
If NDA incites cross-voting within INDIA alliance and achieves electoral victory, it significantly impacts opposition unity. Despite pitching this election as ideological due to constitution vs. RSS-BJP narrative, prominent party cross-voting might question coalition cohesion and leadership, unveiling opposition strategy and organizational weaknesses publicly.
NDA believes in its lobbying prowess. Induced cross-voting testifies NDA's organizational fortitude and lobbying capacity. BJP organized MP sessions and meetings for 100% voting assurance. If MPs from SP, Congress, or others favor NDA, BJP's personalized outreach and incentives (like development projects) triumphs strategically.
The 2025 assembly elections see potential influence from NDA's Vice Presidential electoral outcome. Cross-voting's effect within SP, Congress, or states like UP, Bihar, Maharashtra could shape the following elections. For instance, through SP MP's cross-vote, Akhilesh Yadav's position in UP might weaken.
