All eyes are fixed on the Muslim community in the upcoming by-election for the Mirapur Assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh's Muzaffarnagar district. Since the 2013 riots, it has been observed that the Muslim community tends to vote en masse at the last moment, often favoring the Samajwadi Party during assembly, parliamentary, and subsequent elections.
The Mirapur Assembly constituency boasts approximately 325,000 voters, with about 130,000 being Muslim voters. In this election, besides the NDA's Lok Dal candidate Mithlesh Pal, all parties have presented Muslim candidates, including the Azad Samaj Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, AIMIM, or even the Samajwadi Party, which is seen as the protector of the Muslim community.
Experts suggest that before elections are near, the Muslim community seems divided, with some showing allegiance to the Azad Samaj Party and others to the Bahujan Samaj Party. However, as elections approach, the community seems to unify under the Samajwadi Party's banner. Political analysts claim this is a polarized election, ultimately resulting in a Hindu-Muslim dynamic, where the main contestation is between Lok Dal's candidate Mithlesh Pal and Samajwadi Party's Sumbul Rana.
It's noted that during this by-election, the reputation of the Rashtriya Lok Dal is at stake. In the 2022 assembly elections, Rashtriya Lok Dal had an alliance with the Samajwadi Party, which allowed Chandan Singh Chauhan to win easily. But this time, Rashtriya Lok Dal is part of the NDA, so it remains to be seen whether the Muslim community will trust the Rashtriya Lok Dal or continue its support for the Samajwadi Party.
Looking back at the previous five elections on this seat, in 2007 Kadir Rana from Rashtriya Lok Dal, in 2009 Mithlesh Pal from the same party, in 2012 Maulana Zameer from BCP, in 2017 BJP's Avtar Singh Bhadaana, and in 2022 Chandan Singh Chauhan have ceremoniously secured victories.
