States have long been conducting ethnic surveys without feeling the necessity to release data. However, the issue of ethnic census found strong political backing in Bihar when Nitish Kumar, running the government in alliance with the BJP, took the initiative with Tejashwi Yadav. Bihar conducted an ethnic survey, and a proposal to extend the reservation limit was passed in the assembly, only to be halted by the High Court and upheld by the Supreme Court. Now, Nitish Kumar claims he has requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to include Bihar's proposal in the Ninth Schedule.
The renewed debate in parliament following Rahul Gandhi's mention of caste census is not a novelty. During the special parliamentary session of 2023, Gandhi demanded OBC reservations while discussing the Women’s Bill, subsequently taking to social media to advocate for a caste census. Later, the Congress executive committee passed a resolution on the matter, and during state assembly elections, they promised a caste census if in power. Although Gandhi's election promises didn't impact state polls, they immensely benefited the opposition in the Lok Sabha elections, and they’re strategizing to capitalize further.
Who stands to gain from the ongoing caste census debate? Will it be the ruling NDA at the center or the strengthening opposition, INDIA Bloc?
Following the release of Bihar’s caste survey results, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promptly dismissed the issue and tried to elucidate the opposition's intentions behind the caste census.
When presenting the 2024 general budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized that the interim budget focuses on the poor, women, youth, and farmers—essentially the four main groups, deemed as the country's prominent classes by Prime Minister Modi.
But now, the caste census debate progresses solely as a political battle, wherein the opposition attempts to check BJP, and Anurag Thakur's reaction in parliament suggests BJP is not taking it seriously.
Was Anyone's Caste Ever Questioned?
Is the debate on social media reflective of what transpired in parliament? Social media questions caste, and an old video of Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav hinting at a journalist's caste by surname is circulating again. In the parliament, Akhilesh posed the question during Rahul Gandhi's speech - how can one question someone’s caste?
But was anyone's caste questioned in the parliament? If so, who and by whom?
Actually, during Rahul Gandhi's demand for a caste census, BJP MP Anurag Thakur sarcastically remarked, "How can someone who doesn’t know his caste speak of a census!"
Rahul Gandhi accused Thakur of humiliating him but clarified that he didn’t seek an apology, stating he’s fighting for the downtrodden and marginalized groups.
Akhilesh Yadav defended Gandhi, attacking Thakur, stressing, “How can you ask someone their caste?”
Historically, Gandhi has often raised the issue of officers' caste in central government. During the Women's Bill debate, he pointed out only 3 out of 90 secretaries were from the OBC category, and with a picture of the budget’s preparation, he highlighted the underrepresentation of minorities and OBCs among the officers involved—no Dalit or tribal members either.
The opposition leader remarked, 'A mere 2-3 percent of people are enjoying the privileges while the rest of India is left out.'
Is BJP Falling Into Congress' Trap?
BJP appears to be constantly on the defensive, left reacting to an agenda set by the opposition under Congress, suggesting the narrative is going against BJP's politics.
Why is BJP getting entangled in Congress's caste discourse? The RSS, BJP’s parent organization, has always opposed such divisive practices, promoting unity among Hindus with campaigns like one well, one crematorium, and one temple. Yet, BJP leaders are engrossed in the caste census debate against their own interest.
This debate echoes the DNA controversy in the 2015 Bihar elections, whose outcome was known, but BJP continues to fall into opposition’s strategy instead of learning from it.
Anurag Thakur has again embroiled BJP in the controversy reminiscent of the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. As Thakur has commented, BJP must defend him. Prime Minister Modi endorsed Thakur’s video targeting Rahul Gandhi via Shashi Tharoor’s novel 'The Great Indian Novel,' in which Tharoor humorously compares contemporary leaders to Mahabharata characters.
Thakur seized the opportunity; despite BJP retaining all four Himachal Pradesh seats in the Lok Sabha elections, his exclusion from the central ministry indicated lingering leadership dissatisfaction over the state assembly loss. Evidently striving to please the leadership, Thakur’s actions might benefit him personally, but is it advantageous for BJP? After the 2020 Delhi election loss, BJP leader Amit Shah acknowledged that the opposition exploited Thakur's statements against BJP’s interests.
Does BJP leadership not realize Thakur's repeating the same mistake for personal gain, possibly harming BJP, despite not naming Rahul Gandhi explicitly?
Is Congress Succeeding in Its Mission?
Aside from Jammu and Kashmir, upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand are crucial for BJP to compensate for Lok Sabha performance, alongside Uttar Pradesh by-elections.
Rahul Gandhi's caste politics focus, supported by Akhilesh Yadav, targets the UP by-elections. BJP shouldn't expect this issue to significantly impact these elections amid recent adverse events affecting their reputation.
Congress understands the pitfalls BJP faces and is capitalizing through Gandhi, gaining SP and RJD support, and attempting to reconnect with the OBC electorate.
If Congress secures independent footing, it may detach from regional partners like SP. Understanding Gandhi's perspective on regional alliances, Akhilesh knows the current partnership is a necessity against BJP.
BJP needs to recognize INDIA Bloc’s strategy; Congress's historical rollercoaster is a lesson. However, one favorable aspect for BJP is having Nitish Kumar, who initiated the caste survey, currently allied. Though he conducted it with opposition support, will he safeguard BJP from the caste politics?
