After the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India suspended the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Now, a month later, let's explore the impact on Pakistan, using river flow studies and satellite imagery. Over the past month, India has started routinely flushing water from dams on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.
Let's break down what this means and how it's affecting Pakistan...
Source: aajtak
Filling and Emptying Dams: What's Happening?
India Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team discovered a unique pattern in the dams on India's Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The dams are first filled completely, and then the water is suddenly released to clear silt accumulation. This process enhances the dam's water storage capacity and benefits the electricity-generating turbines.
Satellite images and water flow data have revealed that the Baglihar Dam, India's last on the Chenab, and Pakistan's first, the Marala Dam, show these changes. Change in water flow (outflow) was observed at the Marala Dam...
Flow was 14,800 cusecs (cubic feet per second) when the treaty was suspended.
Dropped to 8,087 cusecs by May 2.
Spiked to 55,148 cusecs on May 3.
Dropped to 3,761 cusecs by May 6.
Increased to 18,331 cusecs by May 9, reduced to 3,470 cusecs by May 16, and rose to 20,648 cusecs on May 20.
On May 1, satellite pictures showed flushing at Baglihar Dam. Water and silt release changed the river's color, and the dam’s gates remained shut for 10 days. On May 11, they opened to release water, following a similar pattern the next week.
Source: aajtak
What Happened on the Jhelum River?
No notable fluctuations in water levels were observed at Pakistan's Mangla Dam on the Jhelum, except for a temporary increase in water flow, potentially due to flushing from upstream dams in India. European Space Agency satellite images showed Kishanganga Dam's gates wide open on April 29. By the next week, only one gate remained open until May 21, when it closed completely. As a run-of-the-river project, Kishanganga cannot store much water. Its reservoir can hold only 18.8 million cubic meters.
Source: aajtak
No Changes on the Indus River
No significant changes have been noted on the Indus River as India does not have a major storage dam there.
Impact on Pakistan?
Previously, under the IWT, Pakistan protested flushing because the silt could clog its canals. During reservoir filling, water flow into Pakistan temporarily decreases, potentially impacting agriculture and water supply.
Source: aajtak
India's Long-Term Strategy
India plans to optimize its use of these rivers by constructing four new power plants, which will increase reservoir water use. Additionally...
The Tulbul navigation project will resume on the Jhelum River.
Enhancing Wular Lake and Jhelum River for flood control.
Optimizing usage of the Ranbir and Pratap canals in the Jammu region.
Increasing water use through lift irrigation projects.
Pakistan's Response
Pakistan has sent India a letter requesting to resume talks over the IWT. However, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar made it clear the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan takes definitive action against terrorism.
