Today marks a joyous occasion for Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), with the Supreme Court granting bail to Kejriwal. He is expected to be released from Tihar Jail today. The court delivered its decision on two petitions related to Kejriwal, and AAP has declared that he is now free on bail. Kejriwal is set to take charge of the party's campaign for the Haryana Assembly elections and will actively implement AAP's strategies. His release could potentially heighten tensions for both BJP and Congress.
In Haryana, the BJP has been in power for the past decade, with Congress as the prime opposition party. Both have demonstrated robust campaigns. The Indian National Lok Dal and Jannayak Janata Party are also vying for influence. AAP has fielded candidates for all 90 seats, banking on disillusioned leaders from both Congress and BJP. Unlike in 2019, AAP has now expanded its organization and gained strong ground in several areas. The true impact of AAP's efforts will only be clear after the election results. Nonetheless, Kejriwal's release has certainly brought a renewed enthusiasm to party leaders and supporters.
Perfectly Timed Release for Kejriwal
Until now, Kejriwal's wife, Sunita Kejriwal, has been leading the charge in Haryana. She has been aggressively campaigning in his absence, presenting Kejriwal as a true son of Haryana. With the nomination process concluding on September 12, the campaign is now in full swing, with rallies and events scheduled by major leaders. Hence, Kejriwal's release is considered perfectly timed to amplify the party's election efforts.
AAP Gears Up Full Force for Haryana Elections
AAP has decided to contest the Haryana elections solo. Although the party's organization in Haryana is weaker compared to Delhi and Punjab, candidates are primarily banking on Kejriwal’s campaigning. Failed coalition talks with Congress have shown divisions in the opposition alliance. Experts believe Kejriwal's return could not only unify the party but also attract dissatisfied leaders, bolstering its campaign.
AAP Eyes Haryana After Delhi and Punjab
While Delhi is Kejriwal's political stronghold, Haryana is his homeland. Kejriwal’s ancestral village is in Hisar. He often connects himself to Haryana in political events. Known for understanding Delhi's pulse, Kejriwal made history by establishing AAP's government in Punjab. Now, the focus is on Haryana, another neighboring state. This narrative is being echoed in campaign speeches and could resonate with the public.
Kejriwal's Release: A Boon for AAP
Experts suggest that Kejriwal's release will serve as a significant boost for AAP, strengthening the organization and helping it to challenge both BJP and Congress effectively. This development is also worrisome for Congress, as AAP could eat into its vote bank.
Even though AAP is still trying to establish a strong foothold in Haryana, the party leader's bail might provide a psychological edge. This could uplift supporters' morale and give a boost to AAP's election strategy, especially in areas where the party's base is weak. During the campaign, AAP could create a positive narrative to attract voters, although election outcomes often depend on multiple factors.
AAP Could Harm BJP in Urban Areas
Besides Congress, BJP faces the concern that AAP could encroach into their vote bank, especially in urban areas where BJP is strong. Experts believe that Kejriwal's release isn't necessarily a relief for BJP, as AAP's growing influence in urban regions might undermine BJP's urban votes.
Traditionally, Haryana has seen a contest between Congress and BJP. AAP's emergence might split votes, especially in urban regions and areas yearning for change, potentially harming both Congress and BJP—particularly in closely-contested seats.
AAP's campaign focuses on issues of education, healthcare, and corruption. Kejriwal's release could push these topics to the forefront of election discussions.
AAP to Leverage Disgruntled Leaders
Another key factor is the presence of disgruntled leaders whose families did not receive tickets from BJP or Congress. These leaders could become assets for AAP. The party has nominated candidates who have previously performed well in elections, which could pose challenges for Congress. If anti-BJP votes are split, the loss might affect Congress. In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, AAP contested 46 seats but secured only 0.48% of the vote share.
Areas of AAP's Influence in Haryana
- AAP primarily focuses on urban and town areas in Haryana. Districts like Gurugram and Faridabad, part of the National Capital Region (NCR), could see AAP's influence due to their proximity to Delhi. Many residents here are influenced by Delhi’s politics.
- AAP's clout is growing in Hisar, an area traditionally influenced by independent and regional parties. This provides an opportunity for AAP. The party is also making efforts to strengthen its base in Kurukshetra and Karnal districts, which are close to NCR. Since Karnal is the home district of Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, it's a strategically important area for AAP.
- Sonepat and Panipat districts, also part of NCR, are influenced by political events in Delhi. AAP has tried to strengthen its base here by focusing on education, healthcare, and corruption.
- Rohtak, a traditionally Congress-strong district, is another area where AAP is trying to establish its presence.
- Districts like Bhiwani, Rewari, and Jhajjar hold significance for AAP, especially as the party aims to enhance its rural and town strategies.
Voting in Haryana will take place for 90 seats on October 5, with results announced on October 8.
