Following the failure to reach a consensus between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA Bloc, both coalitions have fielded their candidates for the position of Lok Sabha Speaker. The election for the next Speaker will take place on June 26th with the Protem Speaker overseeing the voting process. Om Birla of Rajasthan's Kota and K. Suresh from Kerala's Mavelikara have respectively filed their nominations as candidates from the NDA and INDIA Bloc.
Om Birla vs K. Suresh: Who has the upper hand in the 543-member Lok Sabha?
Currently, there are 542 members in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, with the Wayanad seat vacant following Rahul Gandhi's resignation. The NDA with 293 MPs clearly holds the majority. The INDIA Bloc has 233 MPs, and other parties, including independents, have 16 MPs. Even if these 16 MPs support the INDIA Bloc candidate, their number would reach 249, short of the 271 votes needed to win the Speaker's election.
With the NDA's majority in the Lok Sabha, Om Birla appears to be leading the race to become Speaker for a second consecutive term. Om Birla was first elected as an MP from Kota in 2014, re-elected in 2019, and then unanimously chosen as the 17th Lok Sabha Speaker.
How is the Speaker elected?
The Lok Sabha elects its Speaker and Deputy Speaker through a simple majority of members present and voting. A candidate needs to secure more than 50% of the MPs' votes to be elected. With 293 seats in NDA's favor, the coalition led by BJP is likely to face no trouble in electing their preferred candidate as Speaker.
Does the INDIA Bloc have a chance?
The prospects for the INDIA Bloc to secure the Speaker's post are slim unless significant NDA allies like JDU and TDP engage in cross-voting in favor of INDIA Bloc's candidate K. Suresh. However, both TDP and JDU have already declared their support for the BJP-backed candidate. Additionally, Mamata Banerjee, who is supporting the INDIA Bloc from the sidelines, has expressed displeasure over not being included in the decision-making for Speaker's candidacy. If her party TMC abstains from voting, the INDIA Bloc's support could reduce to 204 MPs.
In the NDA, the BJP alone has 240 MPs, followed by TDP with 16, JDU with 12, Shiv Sena with 7, LJP with 5, RLD with 2, and Apna Dal as well as NCP with one MP each. In the INDIA Bloc, the Congress leads with 99 MPs, the Samajwadi Party with 37, TMC with 29, and DMK with 22 MPs. Shiv Sena UBT has 9, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) has 8, Aam Aadmi Party has 3, and JMM also has 3 MPs.
