The final election phase on June 1st in Uttar Pradesh has voting occurring across 13 seats, but 4 are trapped in such a complex caste labyrinth that it severely complicates matters for the NDA. In the 2019 general elections, amidst a powerful performance by the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resounding victory in Varanasi, the fact that many prominent seats in Purvanchal were lost or won by a narrow margin was overlooked. Machhlishahr, Chandauli, Ballia, etc. experienced very close contests. At least five parliamentary seats slipped from the BJP’s grasp. Moreover, during the 2022 legislative assembly elections, Purvanchal proved to be a thorn in the BJP’s side, with several districts being completely wiped clean of BJP representation. Indeed, elections in India tend to overshadow issues of caste and religion. Considered one of the biggest flaws of Indian democracy, this issue is nonetheless acknowledged and accepted within the Indian system. Let's take a closer look at how the NDA has been ensnared by these four critical seats in the final phase.
1-Trapped in Predicament: The Four Critical Seats
The battleground in Purvanchal's seats is likely to be fierce this time too, but the final phase's 13 seats see NDA's situation so entangled in four of them that they seem to be relying solely on divine intervention for rescue. In Ghosi, NDA's candidate Anil Rajbhar, hailing from Suhaldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, is facing the challenges posed by the Samajwadi Party's Rajeev Rai and BSP's Balkrishna Chauhan. Mirzapur presents a tight race for NDA candidate and Union Minister Anupriya Patel against SP's Rajendra S Bind. Chandauli sees BJP's Mahendra Nath Pandey struggling against SP's Virendra Singh and BSP's Satendra Maurya. The hottest seat, Ballia, features BJP's Neeraj Shekhar, son of former PM Chandra Shekhar, in a showdown against SP's Sanatan Pandey.
2-The Caste Chakravyuh
In Eastern UP's caste labyrinth, no party can insulate even their core voters. The issue lies in the core voters' allegiance to the party only as long as their caste candidate is in the fray. In Ballia, BJP's Neeraj Shekhar, of Rajput lineage, has the traditionally Brahmin BJP followers conflicted as the SP fields a Brahmin candidate, Sanatan Pandey. Sanatan Pandey, a contested the previous elections and narrowly lost. With local Bhumihar leader Narad Rai switching from the SP to the BJP in hope of damage control, the scene is complicated. Chandauli presents another front of the caste battle while, Ghosi sees the BJP core voters, the Bhumihars, reluctant to side with Anil Rajbhar, with both SP and BSP candidates chipping away at his support base.
Central to the struggles in Mirzapur, Union Minister Anupriya Patel lands in hot water with her controversial statements against Raja Bhaiya, as BSP's Manish Tripathi and SP's Rajendra S Bind ready themselves for the electoral challenge.
3-BSP Candidates Stir the Political Brew
The BSP's image as a B-team to the BJP doesn't hold in Eastern UP where it's creating significant roadblocks for NDA. In Ghosi, Chandauli, and Mirzapur, BSP candidates like former MP Balkrishna Chauhan and Satendra Kumar Maurya are becoming formidable threats to BJP. This could disrupt BJP's longstanding reign and Anupriya Patel's support base, given the potential shift of Brahmin votes towards BSP.
4-SP Introduces Strong Candidates
SP's adept choice in candidates for these four seats cannot be ignored, as they are perceived to be not only strong contenders because of local affiliations but also possess personal merits that resonate with local politics.
Thus unfolds the epic saga of UP elections, each with its own riveting narratives and intricate subplots of caste alliances and voter sentiments, challenging the reigning BJP and raising the stakes for every political aspirant.
