Pakistan's Unlikely Path to Asia Cup Final Despite Loss to India

India and Pakistan's Asia Cup clash on September 21 could lead to an unexpected final showdown.
The Super-4 clash between India and Pakistan is set for September 21 (Photo:AP)

Source: aajtak

The Asia Cup 2025 has entered a thrilling phase as the battle moves into the Super-4. Only four teams will qualify for this stage. The teams ranking in the top 2 positions will compete in the final on September 28 in Dubai.

India and Pakistan are set to square off on September 21 in the Super-4 stage of the Asia Cup. But could we see them face each other again in the final? The burning question is, if Pakistan loses to India in their Dubai match on the 21st, can they still make it to the final?

If the Indian team loses to Pakistan on that Sunday, what happens? Will their chances of reaching the final still remain alive? And what about the tension from their previous no-handshake episode? Will it resurface?
Understanding the Super 4 Dynamics...

The excitement of the Asia Cup 2025 is reaching its climax. The Super-4 round begins on September 20, leading up to the thrilling final on September 28 in Dubai. Once again, India and Pakistan are poised to battle on September 21. With eight teams initially participating, Group A saw India, Pakistan, Oman, and UAE, with Oman and UAE already eliminated.

Also read:
No-Handshake Part 2: India vs. Pakistan, Will Tensions Rise this Sunday?

On the other hand, Group B features Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Hong Kong, with Hong Kong already out of the race. On September 18, Sri Lanka is set to clash with Afghanistan. Currently, Sri Lanka has 4 points from 2 wins, Bangladesh has 4 points from 3 matches with 2 wins, while Afghanistan, with a single win out of 2 matches, is at 2 points. This group is still open.

points table

Source: aajtak

The Complex Calculations of Group B... On September 18, the match between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will determine the fate of three teams.
  • Bangladesh's pathway to Super-4

  • If Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan by any margin.

  • If Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka by 70 runs or more.

  • If Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka with more than 50 balls remaining.

  • Afghanistan's pathway to Super-4

  • Afghanistan qualifies on a better net run rate if they defeat Sri Lanka by any margin in their final league match.

  • Sri Lanka's path to Super-4

  • If Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan by any margin.

  • Sri Lanka should not lose to Afghanistan by 70 runs or more.

  • Afghanistan should not chase the target against Sri Lanka in fewer than 12.2 overs (46 balls remaining).

How Pakistan Could Play the Final Despite Losing to India

Both India and Pakistan have three matches to play in the Super 4. If Pakistan loses to India but wins its next two Super-4 matches, staying in the top 2 of the points table, it could face India in the final. The same scenario applies to the Indian team. To make it to the final, they must secure a place in the top 2, and winning all three matches will ensure their spot. Even winning two games keeps them in contention, with the net run rate (NRR) becoming crucial.

Super-4 Schedule

20 September (Saturday), Dubai: B1 vs B2, 8:00 PM 21 September (Sunday), Dubai: India vs Pakistan (A1 vs A2), 8:00 PM 23 September (Tuesday), Abu Dhabi: Pakistan (A2) vs B1, 8:00 PM 24 September (Wednesday), Dubai: India (A1) vs B2, 8:00 PM 25 September (Thursday), Dubai: Pakistan (A2) vs B2, 8:00 PM 26 September (Friday), Dubai: India (A1) vs B1, 8:00 PM Final: 28 September (Sunday), Dubai: Top 2 teams from Super-4, 8:00 PM

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