In recent times, geopolitics has seen many changes, particularly in South Asia, significantly affecting India. For instance, the coup in Bangladesh was a substantial blow to India.
Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee once said, 'You can change friends, but not neighbors.' The biggest problem for India is that it hasn't had the best neighbors.
Among all of India's neighbors, none have political stability. Bangladesh was politically and economically stable, but a coup occurred last week. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to resign and leave Bangladesh. Currently, she is in India.
Except for Bhutan, all neighboring countries have governments considered anti-India. Power changed in Nepal last month, and now there is a pro-China government. Bangladesh has an interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. However, elections will be held in a few months, and an anti-India government might come to power.
How Serious is the Crisis in Bangladesh?
Bangladesh was established with India's help, and since then, the relationship between the two countries has been excellent. However, Sheikh Hasina's absence from power could be problematic for India. She was always close to India, and her presence benefited India.
Last month, Sheikh Hasina visited China but cut her visit short and returned. Upon return, she made a significant announcement for India, expressing a desire for India to complete the Teesta Project despite China's interest.
With Sheikh Hasina out of power, the chances of an anti-India government coming to power in Bangladesh have increased. Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami could form the government. These parties are considered inclined towards Islamic fundamentalism and have been closer to Pakistan, which benefits China due to its strong ties with Pakistan.
Moreover, Sheikh Hasina’s government was sensitive about tackling terrorism, taking actions against anti-India terrorist groups. Now, the risk of terrorist infiltration from Bangladesh has increased.
India’s stability is not the only concern, but Bangladesh's own employment and inflation issues are significant. Thus, Bangladesh would want its relations with India to remain favorable for economic benefits.
However, Bangladesh might likely get closer to China. Sheikh Hasina's government maintained a balance between India and China.
Source: aajtak
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Is China Encircling India's Neighbors?
Sri Lanka has been experiencing instability for a long time due to China. Pakistan has been an adversary of India since independence. Myanmar has had military rule for years. In the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, who is seen as a pro-China supporter, became president last year. Pro-China KP Sharma Oli became the Prime Minister in Nepal last month.
Bhutan:
Surrounded by land, Bhutan appears to be moving closer to China. Talks are at the final stage to resolve the border dispute with China. The disputed areas include 269 sq km of Doklam and a 495 sq km area of Jakarlung and Pasamlung hills. China proposes giving up its claim on the 495 sq km area if Bhutan cedes Doklam. If this agreement is reached, China’s military will be closer to India. In 2017, there was a 76-day standoff between India and China at Doklam.
Nepal:
Only last month, Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' was ousted, and KP Sharma Oli became the Prime Minister. Prachanda was considered pro-India, while Oli is closer to China. During Oli’s previous tenure, Nepal joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Moreover, Oli’s stance towards India was not positive. He claimed India’s Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura regions as Nepal’s territory. In May 2020, Nepal released a new map showing these areas as its territory.
Maldives:
Mohamed Muizzu won the presidential elections last year, running on an 'India Out' campaign. Muizzu is viewed as a pro-China candidate. Relations between India and Maldives deteriorated after his victory. Under Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s presidency, India-Maldives relations strengthened. Muizzu's government signed 20 agreements with China to reduce dependency on India. However, the Maldives now states that it trusts India will be the first to respond in times of crisis.
Myanmar has been in a state of civil war for over three-and-a-half years. In February 2021, the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Currently, Army Chief Min Aung Hlaing runs the government, with 50% of the territory reportedly under rebel control. Myanmar is close to China and increasingly so under military rule. As a member of BRI since 2017, Myanmar’s debt to China is rising, risking bankruptcy.
Sri Lanka:
Since 2022, Sri Lanka has been facing a severe economic crisis, attributed to China. During the Rajapaksa administration, Sri Lanka’s ties with China strengthened, leading to significant debt. Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in April 2022 with over $51 billion in debt. However, following Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s departure, President Ranil Wickremesinghe improved the economy. Elections are due in September-October this year; Wickremesinghe will run independently. An alternative party or coalition win might pose a concern for India.
Source: aajtak
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Pakistan: A Long-Time Adversary
Since the 1947 partition, relations between India and Pakistan have been strained, resulting in three wars, two over Kashmir. Tensions persist along the border.
Half of Pakistan’s history has been under military rule, while even democratically elected governments have maintained an anti-India stance.
Pakistan has long been close to China, with China investing billions of dollars there. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of the BRI, is primarily funded by China.
China’s loans have worsened Pakistan’s economy, weakening its currency and causing severe inflation.
India’s Response
To maintain favorable relations with its neighbors and counter China’s influence, India has allocated nearly Rs 4,000 crore in the 2024-25 budget to assist neighboring countries.
Excluding Pakistan, India has spent thousands of crores on its neighbors in recent years. South Asia has become a battleground for China and India.
China has extended its reach to all South Asian countries through the BRI, encircling India. Offering economic assistance to these countries is essential for India to counter China’s influence.
The NDA government is trying to keep neighboring countries close through the 'Neighborhood First' policy. Reducing China's influence requires India to maintain strong ties with these nations.
