The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5th this year. In a significant political development, President Joe Biden has decided not to run for the next election. In a statement, Biden said he made the decision in the best interest of the party. It is highly likely that Kamala Harris will face former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump in the upcoming election as the Democratic candidate. Now, questions are arising: Can she challenge Trump, and how will Biden stepping down change the American election?
Here, we address these questions in five points...
1.
Although Joe Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris for the presidential candidacy, it doesn't mean she has the Democratic Party's full support yet. The final decision on her candidacy will be made at the party convention in Chicago next month. During the Democratic presidential primaries earlier this year, Biden secured support from about 95% of the delegates at the August 19-22 convention. Given Biden's endorsement, these delegates are likely to support Harris as well. Thus, she is far ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination, surpassing other leaders like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
2.
Even if Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic presidential candidate, challenging Donald Trump won't be easy. Joe Biden's performance was notably weak during the debate with Trump on June 27. This sparked speculation that the Democratic Party might need a different candidate to challenge Trump. However, recent surveys suggest that Kamala Harris may not pose a significant challenge to Trump either. Harris supporters argue that with Biden out of the race, upcoming debates between Trump and Harris might shift the survey numbers. Nevertheless, Trump has tried to put psychological pressure on both the Democratic Party and Harris by saying, 'Defeating Kamala Harris will be easier than beating Joe Biden.'
Source: aajtak
3.
For example, in last week’s Economist/YouGov survey, 41-43% believed Biden would lose to Trump, whereas 39-44% thought Kamala Harris would lose to Trump. However, Harris has significant support among Asian-African origin voters. Democratic supporters affectionately call her 'Female Obama.' Vice President Harris is also popular among Black Americans compared to White Americans. This includes people of Indian descent because Harris herself has Indian roots. Her mother, Dr. Shyamala Gopalan, was from Tamil Nadu. Harris is also highly regarded by women.
4.
Analyzing the Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump matchup would be premature. Harris has never run for the presidency before. In a recent YouGov poll for CBS News, Trump holds a 5-point lead over Biden and a 3-point lead over Harris. Two factors could work in Harris's favor: the economic front is improving, inflation has decreased, and real incomes have risen. Additionally, Biden will be around 82 years old by the time of the election, whereas Harris will be 60. Donald Trump is 78 years old. The age and health issues that were against Biden could actually work in Harris's favor.
Source: aajtak
5.
Still, nominating someone who hasn't been tested in primary elections is risky. When Harris was in the presidential race in 2020, she withdrew before the Democratic primary. Biden's age and health were major concerns for voters, and he was already trailing Trump in numerous surveys. Taking a chance on a new candidate could be a wise move for the Democrats. Surveys showed Biden losing to Trump but Democratic candidates performing better in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. So it could be said that Biden’s candidacy was the biggest issue for the Democrats, potentially solvable with a new candidate.
The deadly attack on Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania has generated a wave of sympathy for him. Additionally, he performed strongly in the debate against Biden on June 27, gaining favor. However, the direction of the election will be determined after Kamala Harris becomes the official Democratic candidate and debates Trump. Currently, Trump seems strong, but Harris joining the race will certainly make it interesting.
