The countdown to the Bihar Assembly elections has begun, igniting political tension within the INDIA bloc. The ruling party in Jharkhand, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), is making bold moves, determined not to be a 'guest' but an equal 'partner'. JMM demands a minimum of 12 to 13 seats in Bihar. However, sources say that the INDIA bloc has yet to engage officially with JMM or offer them a respectful position. This lack of engagement has irked JMM leaders, particularly Hemant Soren, who is discontent with the RJD leadership, especially Lalu Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav.
JMM's discontent also extends to their long-time ally, the Congress. The Santhal Parganas and Kolhan regions, considered JMM strongholds in Jharkhand, have seen increased Congress activity, with marches and panchayat meetings picking up pace. JMM views this grassroots mobilization as a potential strategy to pressure seat allocations, echoing Bihar's scenario, irritating Hemant's party. These areas are predominantly tribal. In the 2024 elections, JMM secured a strong performance in Santhal and Kolhan, where out of 18 seats, the INDIA bloc won 17.
No Discussion with JMM So Far...
Turning towards Bihar, preparations for the Assembly elections are in full swing. The RJD is leading the charge within the INDIA bloc, collaborating closely with the Congress for seat-sharing discussions. Despite having met four times over seat allocations, RJD has not once included JMM in these discussions or reached any consensus on seats.
The RJD has been working hard to build agreements, holding one-on-one talks with influential leaders of allied parties. The next significant discussion on seat-sharing is expected post the RJD's National Convention on July 5.
Manoj Pandey, spokesperson for JMM, acknowledges this oversight, stating clearly, 'We are not dependent on anyone. If the INDIA bloc does not recognize our worth, we will contest independently. We have an organization, popular leaders, and public support in Bihar.'
Source: aajtak
Pandey's comments reflect not just on seat allocations but also question the 'one-sided' working style of the grand alliance under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav and Lalu Prasad Yadav.
Ignored in Bihar, but Partner in Jharkhand?
JMM feels the sting of being underestimated in Bihar, despite accommodating Congress and RJD's demands in seat allocations during Jharkhand's elections. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, JMM did not field any candidates in Bihar, extending support to the INDIA alliance. Yet, it was not even invited to INDIA bloc meetings.
In Jharkhand, the government led by JMM includes both Congress and RJD. However, this growing dissatisfaction might ripple beyond Bihar, impacting the coalition government in Jharkhand as well.
Our Leaders Are Not Less Popular
RJD has not remained silent on JMM's sharp criticism. Kailash Yadav, the RJD secretary in Jharkhand, retorted, saying, 'If there's a problem, it should be addressed directly. JMM should not speak from a place of arrogance. Tejashwi Yadav is like a storm in Bihar. Our popularity is second to none.' This stance indicates RJD's belief that JMM should discuss issues in the 'right forum', avoiding media pressure politics.
Solutions Through Dialogue
The Congress, meanwhile, is leaning into diplomacy, advocating for compromise and patient dialogue. Jharkhand Congress leader Keshav Mahato Kamlesh stated, 'Just as we reached a consensus through talks in Jharkhand, a similar mutual agreement will be achieved in Bihar. There is plenty of time for discussions.'
However, internal sources suggest otherwise. According to insiders, RJD's seat-sharing strategy may allocate 138 seats to RJD, 54 to Congress, 30 to Left parties, and 18 to VIP, leaving no room for JMM.
Reports indicate that if Pashupati Paras's RLJP joins the grand alliance, it might be allocated the remaining three seats. The seats JMM hoped to contest in Bihar are likely being distributed among other coalition partners.
What Does the BJP Say?
In response to the controversy, BJP leader and Rajya Sabha MP Aditya Sahu remarked, 'RJD and Congress will never prioritize JMM. Their goal is to exploit Jharkhand's resources for political gain. Hemant Soren's demand for seats is just a show.'
Does Jharkhand Government Face Risks?
Political analysts suggest that if JMM's grievances deepen, the role of Congress and RJD in Jharkhand could be questioned. With 34 JMM MLAs in the Jharkhand assembly, a majority requires 41. Congress holds 16 seats, RJD 4. RJD and Congress currently share power. A deeper political rift could disrupt the power equilibrium in Jharkhand.
Will JMM Contest Alone?
The political circle is abuzz with speculation on whether JMM will contest in Bihar independently. If the INDIA bloc doesn't recognize its significance, JMM might not only contest in Bihar but may reassess its relationships with RJD and Congress in Jharkhand too.
What Is JMM's Performance Record in Bihar?
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, JMM contested 5 seats, garnering 25,213 votes, competing against RJD candidates on four seats and Congress on one. Earlier, in 2015, JMM contested 32 seats in Bihar, securing 103,940 votes, as part of the grand alliance.
In 2010, JMM independently contested 41 seats, earning 176,400 votes. In 2005, JMM contested 18 seats, receiving 76,671 votes. In 2000, the party ran for a maximum of 85 seats, accumulating 1,306,152 votes.
However, in the 2024 general elections, JMM did not field candidates in Bihar, supporting the INDIA alliance candidates instead. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, JMM stood for 4 seats in Bihar, securing 30,853 votes. In 2014, it contested 8 seats, receiving 189,265 votes. Back in 2004, JMM contested 4 seats, gaining 108,841 votes. The party did not field candidates in the 2024 general elections, backing the INDIA alliance instead.
What Were the 2020 Bihar Results?
In the 2020 Assembly election, within the grand alliance, RJD contested 144 seats, Congress 70, Left parties 29. Meanwhile, in the NDA, BJP fought for 110, JDU for 115, HAM for 7, and VIP for 13 seats. The results saw BJP winning 74, JDU 43, HAM 4, and VIP 4. RJD secured 75, Congress 19, and Left parties 16 seats.
What Lies Ahead?
If JMM ventures alone in Bihar, several constituencies may witness triangular battles, risking vote splits for RJD-Congress. If no agreement is reached, a decision by August is possible. However, if a seat-sharing deal is struck, the coalition will challenge the NDA with full force. Clarity on the situation is anticipated post RJD's National Convention on July 5. Party sources claim that JMM has already begun booth management and candidate scrutiny for 12 seats.
