Just a few months ago, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) clinched victory in the Lok Sabha elections, securing 291 seats and forming the government for the third consecutive time. As Prime Minister Modi's administration enters its third term, the question arises: how has public sentiment evolved, and what would happen if general elections were held today? To evaluate this, Aaj Tak collaborated with C-Voter to conduct the Mood of the Nation Survey. Here are the top 10 takeaways from the survey:
1- Modi Remains the Most Popular PM Candidate, But Popularity Waning
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most popular candidate for the prime ministerial post. However, his popularity has decreased. In the February edition of the Mood of the Nation Survey, over 54% of respondents favored Modi for the PM role. Meanwhile, around 14% preferred Rahul Gandhi. In this survey, Modi's favorability dropped below 50%, with 49% still considering him the best choice for PM, while 22% now believe Rahul Gandhi would be a better PM.
Source: aajtak
When asked about the best Prime Minister the country has ever had, 52% of respondents named Narendra Modi.
Source: aajtak
Opposition activism is cited as the main factor behind the impact on Narendra Modi's popularity and Rahul Gandhi’s increasing profile. The Congress party has been focusing on revealing the government's shortcomings from Parliament to social media. Issues like paper leaks, inflation, and unemployment appear to be affecting PM Modi's popularity. In this survey, 28% held the central government accountable for paper leaks.
2- Decline in Satisfaction with PM Modi’s Performance
Only 34% have rated PM Modi's performance as good. 15% said it was average, 10% found it poor, and 13% deemed it very poor. In February, around 42% rated his performance as very good, and 18.7% as good. At that time, 11.7% called it average, 13.1% poor, and 10.5% very poor.
Source: aajtak
The latest Mood of the Nation figures show a decline in those who rate Modi’s performance as good. The combined 23% who found his performance poor or very poor remains about the same as the previous survey. However, there's an increase in the number of people calling his performance average.
Analysts attribute the drop in satisfaction to weakened emotional issues and rising concerns about inflation and unemployment. Until February, the Ram Temple issue was significant. Post-election, the perceived delay and indecision in the government's subsequent actions seem to have influenced public opinion.
3- Both BJP and Congress Gaining Seats
In the most recent Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured 240 seats while Congress won 99. According to the MoTN survey, if elections were held today, BJP would win 244 seats and Congress 106. That’s an increase of four seats for BJP and seven for Congress, while other parties could secure 193 seats.
The simultaneous increase in seats for BJP and Congress is linked to the notion of a rising bipolar contest. Early in PM Modi's third term, Congress is actively shedding its tag of an inactive opposition, which appears to be translating into increased seats. A morale boost from the recent election results also seems to have positively influenced Congress workers and leaders.
4- Parties Not Aligned with Major Blocs
Parties outside both the NDA and India's Bloc showed a declining trend. They secured 16 seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The MoTN survey indicates that if elections were held today, they would capture only 11 seats.
Source: aajtak
This shift is attributed to a growing public inclination toward national parties and a tendency toward a bipolar political contest, observed even during the most recent Lok Sabha elections when the seats of non-aligned parties fell to 16.
5- Increasing Popularity of Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has increased. In February 2024, around 14% of people considered Rahul Gandhi their preferred PM candidate. Six months later, the latest survey shows 22% favoring Rahul for the PM position. More than 50% of respondents rated Rahul Gandhi’s performance as an opposition leader as good.
Source: aajtak
Reasons for Rahul's rising popularity include his public engagements and consistent efforts on significant issues like caste census, Agnipath, and legal guarantees for MSP for farmers. From traveling in trucks and cabs to mending shoes in cobbler shops and making stools in furniture stores, Rahul Gandhi’s diverse public interactions have also contributed.
6- Performance of Congress as Opposition
18% of respondents rated Congress's performance as the opposition very good, while 26% said it was good. Meanwhile, 20% found it average, and 14% called it poor. Congress's image as an opposition party is evolving positively. Whether it’s about capital gains tax indexation or the Waqf Bill, forcing the government to find a middle ground has positively impacted Congress’s image.
7- Biggest Issues Facing the Nation
According to the Mood of the Nation survey, 28% identified unemployment as the biggest issue. Inflation was a concern for 19%, poverty for 6%, agricultural crisis for another 6%, and 5% highlighted electricity, water, and road infrastructure. In the last MoTN survey, 26% had identified unemployment as the major issue.
Source: aajtak
Rising concerns about unemployment and inflation pose challenges for the ruling parties. Approximately 44% of people in Jharkhand and Haryana consider unemployment a major issue, significantly higher than the 28% national average. This scenario signals a warning for the ruling parties in these states, which might struggle if unemployment and inflation remain critical issues during the general elections.
8- Best Performing Chief Minister
UP's CM Yogi Adityanath has once again been ranked as the best CM, with 43% of respondents considering him the best in the country. In February, 46.3% named him the best CM. Satisfaction with CM Yogi’s performance also dropped from 51% in February to 39%.
Source: aajtak
Also Read: Yogi, Mamata, Kejriwal, Shinde, Hemant... What's the Factor Behind the Waning and Waxing Popularity of Different CMs
9- How Effective is Haryana's New CM Move?
Prior to the Lok Sabha elections, BJP replaced the CM in Haryana. 22% of residents are satisfied with CM Naib Saini’s performance, while 19% are somewhat satisfied. While 41% are either satisfied or somewhat satisfied, 40% are dissatisfied. This indicates that the CM change hasn’t been particularly effective, revealing nearly equal numbers of satisfied and dissatisfied people. The somewhat satisfied voters could play a pivotal role in the upcoming elections.
Also Read: MOTN: How Many Seats Now? Understanding the Major Issues and Election Dynamics in 15 Charts
10- Status of Shinde's Shiv Sena in Maharashtra
The MOTN survey shows growing popularity for Eknath Shinde, the Shiv Sena leader, and Maharashtra’s CM. In August 2024, 35% are satisfied with his performance, 31% are somewhat satisfied, and 28% are dissatisfied. 25% expressed satisfaction with the government's performance, 34% are somewhat satisfied, and another 34% are dissatisfied. This data reflects a mixed reaction among the public regarding the government’s performance.
