The 6th phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is set for voting on May 25th. The situation in the 14 Uttar Pradesh seats is highly unpredictable, where even political analysts are hard-pressed to foresee the distribution of caste-based votes. Seats such as Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Allahabad, Phulpur, and Azamgarh are just a few where the electoral battle will unfold. The test of clout for Raja Bhaiya and Dhananjay Singh and the political strategies of BJP and SP will be evident.
The effectiveness of Akhilesh's PDA formula and the BJP’s reliance on caste-focused alliances will be clear in this phase. Political worth of heavyweights like Maneka Gandhi, Jagdambika Pal, and Dinesh Lal Yadav 'Nirahua' lies on a knife-edge.
Jaunpur and Machhlishahr elections are tricky for the BJP as Dhananjay Singh commands significant influence there. Any victory could underscore his role, whereas a loss might reflect his faded charm. The battle here is between NDA and India Alliance candidates, with former minister Kripa Shankar Singh representing the BJP and former minister Babu Singh Kushwaha for SP. The current scenario makes clear Dhananjay Singh’s heavy backing for the BJP.
As we reach the sixth phase, Raja Bhaiya's discontent with BJP may cost them dearly. His strong presence could sway thousands of votes in at least 4 seats: Pratapgarh, Shravasti, Bhadohi, and Allahabad. The outcome will reveal his current political sway.
The voting pattern of backward castes, highly influential across many of these seats, will be a testament to Akhilesh’s PDA strategy. The seats up for grabs have historically seen strong backward castes and minority presence.
BJP allies such as Apna Dal and Nishad Party rest their future on their ability to rally their respective caste-based vote banks. Influential leaders like Anupriya Patel have a crucial role to play in these elections.
Scions of influential Brahmin families in Purvanchal hold their own fate as they vie for votes among their community. With a strong Brahmin voter base, the candidates' affiliations with BJP and its allies will be crucial to watch.
