For three days, camera crews were posted outside a luxurious hotel in Delhi, all eager to capture just a glimpse of former Jharkhand CM Champai Soren. There was anticipation of a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and top BJP leadership. However, Champai Soren left Delhi without any publicly acknowledged meeting with the BJP.
When Champai Soren returned to his home constituency in Seraikela, Kolhan's Tiger announced a new chapter in his life. He stated his intent to either start a new political party or collaborate with another entity during this new journey.
A close source of Champai Soren told India Today that the former Jharkhand CM will soon form his own faction. Top sources confirmed that this will occur before the Jharkhand Assembly elections. Returning to the JMM camp is out of the question for Champai. While sources say some JMM leaders are in touch with Champai and might join his new faction, he will not break up the JMM.
Why Does BJP Want to Focus on Champai in Kolhan?
Champai Soren is the most senior tribal leader in JMM after the party's patriarch Shibu Soren. His stature in JMM was such that when Hemant Soren decided to step down as CM due to an ED investigation, Champai Soren was appointed Chief Minister instead of fellow Cabinet colleague Joba Majhi.
Appointed Cabinet Minister After Stepping Down as CM
After being released from Ranchi jail on July 4, Hemant Soren returned as CM. Champai Soren was appointed as the new Education Minister in the Jharkhand Cabinet, a role that didn't sit well with the 'Tiger of Kolhan'. Champai stated that he had decided to start a new chapter in his life on July 3 itself. Now, Champai asserts that he will either form a new party or join hands with an ally to create his dream Jharkhand.
What Step Will Benefit BJP the Most?
With Champai Soren's decision, questions arise about the best option for BJP. Should BJP include the former Jharkhand CM, or help him start a new organization? Clearly, a new political organization led by a JMM rebel would benefit BJP. BJP does not plan to form an alliance with the new faction for the 2024 Jharkhand elections.
Raghubar Das Faced Defeat
Kolhan Division has 14 Assembly constituencies. In the 2019 elections, Hemant Soren's coalition dealt a crushing defeat to BJP in Kolhan. The saffron party failed to secure any seats, and then CM Raghubar Das lost to BJP rebel Saryu Roy.
Kolhan Results Secure JMM Victory
JMM's 2019 Assembly election victory was largely due to the tribal-dominated Kolhan region. Despite the Modi wave and Ram temple wave, JMM won 11 out of 14 Assembly seats in Kolhan, while Congress secured two. This strength was pivotal for JMM to record its best electoral numbers in Jharkhand elections.
Champai Soren's Stronghold in Kolhan
Champai Soren has had a long history of influence in the Kolhan area. Known as a leader of the labor class, he fought for Jharkhand under Shibu Soren's leadership. He takes pride in securing jobs for over 10,000 local youngsters in industrial establishments like Tata.
Costs JMM Will Bear for the Rebellion
If Champai Soren contests the 2024 elections independently, BJP is expected to gain significantly. With limited resources, the former Jharkhand CM will focus on Assembly seats in Kolhan Division. It’s anticipated that Champai can retain the Seraikela Assembly seat and might win at least one more, costing JMM dearly.
Setting JD(U) and LJP-like Dynamics
Champai Soren may create JD(U) and LJP-like conditions observed in Bihar in 2021. LJP contested independently and dented JD(U)'s vote base. Although LJP won only one seat, it played a crucial role in JD(U)'s defeat at multiple Assembly seats.
Champai’s Rebellion May Diminish JMM's Vote Share
Likewise, if Champai Soren's candidates secure even 5000 votes in each tribal-dominated constituency in Kolhan, it could be disastrous for JMM and INDIA alliance. Statistics suggest a reduction in JMM's vote share, paving the way for BJP’s victory.
Why Hemant Soren's JMM Is Unshaken by the Rebellion
Reconciliation efforts with JMM appear unlikely, confirmed Champai Soren. When leaving Delhi, Champai remarked that neither Hemant Soren nor JMM top brass like Supriyo Bhattacharya contacted him. On paper, Champai’s strategy seems fatal for JMM. However, JMM insiders believe their party remains unworried. Their confidence stems from Jharkhand's history of failed rebels.
Learning from the Fate of Past Rebels
An unnamed senior JMM MP told India Today, 'State politics is littered with the failed careers of rebels. What happened to Sita Soren? She left JMM and lost in Lok Sabha elections. Geeta Koda joined BJP and faced defeat by Joba Majhi.' He emphasized that Babulal Marandi, now BJP’s Jharkhand President, is the best example of how rebel factions failed.
One Less Worry for JMM
JMM's confidence also comes from Hemant Soren’s peak popularity. With Kalpana Soren joining, JMM now boasts more than one star campaigner. They believe Champai’s early rebellion ensures its impact diminishes by the time elections come around at the year's end.
