The talks are rife across mainstream media platforms and social media channels about the possibility of long-time RSS campaigner Sanjay Joshi or BJP's national vice-president Vasundhara Raje ascending to the BJP president's chair. Alongside Raje and Joshi, the name Shivraj Singh Chouhan also finds mention. However, in the Modi-Shah era, such speculations seldom materialize. Decisions within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are shrouded in secrecy, with the final decision often surprising everyone, including the appointee. Analyzing the selection process for roles like President, Governor, and Chief Ministers provides insight into this trend. Naturally, the announcement for the coveted BJP president post will be even more clandestine.
Thus, predicting who will next assume the BJP presidency is akin to solving a complex puzzle. Nonetheless, continuous conjecture around Vasundhara Raje and Sanjay Joshi has fueled curiosity. Could either actually claim the party's top position? Recently, speculations intensified following a meeting between RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat and Vasundhara Raje in Alwar. Let's delve into some obstacles that might hinder their paths to this prestigious post. The discussion on Shivraj Singh Chouhan's potential will follow.
1. Lack of Noteworthy Achievements by Sanjay Joshi and Vasundhara in the Last Decade
Two primary factors matter when vying for a significant party position: community representation and achievements. We'll explore community dynamics later; first, let's consider accomplishments. Both Sanjay Joshi and Vasundhara Raje have been sidelined within the party for years. Despite being in the BJP, they've often operated as outliers. Vasundhara Raje distanced herself, refraining from attending party meetings following the Rajasthan Assembly Elections. Attempts to forge a personal agenda, disregarding the organizational activities, mark Raje's history.
Many leaders contribute to society or the party's cause, yet these two have missed such opportunities during recent years. Sanjay Joshi, while occasionally praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi in hopes of rekindling past cordial relationships, hasn't significantly contributed to party or national objectives. What reasoning would the BJP or RSS provide for elevating Raje or Joshi to the party's highest position? Brijkishor Dubey, National Coordinator of the ABVP alumni association, suggests those promoting Joshi or Raje are not acting in BJP's best interest. The speculation, viewed by anti-Modi-Shah elements as beneficial for themselves, would likely exacerbate internal conflict if realized.
Dubey asserts that BJP's current stature demands an erudite, technically proficient leader aware of India's diverse canvas—a leader embodying sincerity, inclusivity, and devoid of negativity or vengeance—in contrast to Joshi's characteristics.
2. Working Style of Vasundhara and Joshi Misaligned with Today’s BJP
Both leaders' methodologies don't align with the contemporary BJP model. Under Modi-Shah, BJP demands leaders who work tirelessly round the clock. Brijkishor mentions Vasundhara as reminiscent of the old BJP era—lenient towards her cohorts—a trait causing factionalism within Rajasthan BJP. Her ascension to the national-level BJP president position might nurture internal factionalism once more. Historically, her administrative period heavily reflected personal agendas, casting aside collective organizational priorities.
Sanjay Joshi, too, is known for fostering divisions. Stories about his role in sending Narendra Modi away from Gujarat circulate, and his appointment would rekindle controversies surrounding his past, which could mar BJP's reputation. Dubey emphasizes that talks of Raje and Joshi are mere speculation, intended to destabilize leadership and maintain a precarious balance within central government affairs.
3. Well-Known Dynamics with Modi-Shah: Vasundhara and Sanjay Joshi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah share known dynamics with Vasundhara Raje and Sanjay Joshi from Rajasthan. In 1989-90, the RSS appointed Joshi to reinforce Gujarat's organizational strength alongside existing organizational secretary Modi, leading to BJP’s first power stint in the state by 1995. While backups like Keshubhai and Shankar Singh Vaghela were at the forefront, Modi's eventual return in 2001 and ascent to Chief Minister and later Prime Minister marked a seismic shift.
Vasundhara Raje's rapport with BJP’s central leadership has also been tense. Openness against central decisions, including state presidential appointments, has sparked many instances of discord with New Delhi. Her absence in Modi's Rajasthan campaign rallies and emotional public addresses signaling power displays confirm a strained relationship. Naming her as BJP president might heighten organizational unrest.
4. Brahmin and Rajput Representation Unsustainable
Another barrier is their standing as minorities—Vasundhara, while married into the Jat community, is of Rajput lineage, with alliance ties to the Gujjars. Yet, her Rajput identity remains a stumbling block within today's BJP appointments focused on election strategies. With Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge representing Dalits, BJP wants to secure its Dalit vote while expanding influence, possibly appointing a Dalit, even a South Indian woman, as the next president, considering the incomplete southern expansion agenda.
5. The Viability of Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s Candidacy
Sanjay Joshi or Vasundhara Raje, though balanced by the RSS's influence, present complexities incompatible with Modi-Shah’s communication. Nonetheless, the RSS will avoid inciting internal discord. As a former RSS close associate, Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan surfaced as a potential candidate post-2014 BJP politics. Although not favored post-state politics, his patience has paid; under Modi 3.0, he's agriculture minister. The caste arithmetic aligns well for Shivraj Singh Chouhan from backward communities, earning potential approval from the central BJP leadership.
However, akin to nature's unpredictability, in BJP lore, it’s said that what Modi desires ultimately prevails.
