When Prime Minister Narendra Modi performed a sunrise ritual in Kanyakumari this week, the symbolism wasn't lost on observers: the rising sun is the electoral symbol of DMK. While some may chuckle at the allegory, the recent Axis My India exit poll figures suggest that in South India, the BJP's prospects are truly radiant, marking a significant achievement in a region that has been elusive to the party so far.
If exit poll figures translate into actual results on June 4, it would shatter the notion of South India being an impregnable fortress for BJP, often mocked as a stronghold of Hindi, Hindu, Hindutva ideology. Up until now, BJP has only managed to reign in Karnataka, considered the gateway to the South. Current data indicates that by 2024's Lok Sabha elections, the party could pave two additional routes: one through Telangana and another alongside Andhra Pradesh's Telugu Desam Party. Moreover, results could deliver a shocking twist in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
What drives the 'Vanakkam BJP' momentum in the South?
Predictions say BJP may replicate its 2019 success in Karnataka. A sweet reprisal for the 2023 assembly poll defeat, this potential victory would highlight the analytical acumen of Kannada voters who discern between state and federal elections. An unprecedented 55% vote share points are in the offing for BJP.
The Congress party is likely to find themselves hemmed in to just three seats, a no doubt disappointing prospect considering their campaign hinged on woman-focused initiatives such as the promise of monthly financial aid and free bus travel. A massive outpouring of votes for NDA signals that voters expect more than just a monetary handout or free rides; they want tangible governance improvement. This outcome also suggests BJP's successful campaign wooing Lingayat votes and JDS's appeal to Vokkaliga voters have altered Karnataka's electoral map. It's a blow to AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from the state.
Source: aajtak
Not Just a Bloom, BJP is Afire
As for Telangana, a state where in December 2023, the confident Chief Minister Revanth Reddy flaunted his 100-day governance to voters. The Axis My India-India Today exit poll projects an increase in BJP's stake to 43%, translating into 11-12 seats. Such a surge would be no less dramatic than a political tsunami, echoing the dialogue from the Telugu blockbuster 'Pushpa' that BJP isn't merely a bloom; it's on fire.
BJP's Rising Momentum in Telangana
A significant share vote in Telangaya implies BJP establishing itself as a formidable force within state politics. From a 19% vote share in 2019 to an indicative hike to 24%, most of which seems to have shifted from BRS. Last year, numerous BRS supporters openly favored BJP in national elections. The pans to be a wipeout, as the exit poll agonizingly predicts a plummet from 37% to a scant 13% for BRS.
Source: aajtak
If Congress ends up confined to 4-6 seats, they have only themselves to blame. Both BJP and Congress candidate lists incorporated several defectors from BRS, indicating votes were cast not for the candidates but for Modi.
Does the South Trust BJP with National Vision?
Congress's campaign largely revolved around caste census and guarantees. Yet, people seem drawn to the BJP's 'Mission 2047' slogan when it comes to federal elections, perhaps signaling a paradigm shift in South India's loyalty. Crucially, statistics also brighten the prospects for anti-Revanth Reddy forces within Telangana Congress. The figures don't have Reddy's endorsement, who firmly believes Congress will outperform BJP nationally.
Source: aajtak
BJP Poised to Shake Up Andhra's Political Ground?
The most unconventional exit poll data has emerged from Andhra Pradesh. There's a divide in predictions of political victory. Axis My India hints at an impressive win for NDA, a party that secured less than 1% of the vote while flying solo in 2019. Now, the anticipated claim of winning 4 to 6 out of 6 seats would be a significant shock to YSRCP, resembling a political earthquake. The transformation relies on the deft vote bank transfer from TDP and Jan Sena to BJP, which if occurs, represents no small feat considering recent tensions between TDP and BJP. This would also imply the Andhra populace's indifference towards BJP's refusal to grant the state 'Special Category Status.'
Source: aajtak
BJP Set to Challenge Both Dravidian Parties
BJP might steal seats like Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram, and Tirunelveli in Tamil Nadu, posing a threat to both Dravidian parties. The incline towards stalwart O Panneerselvam as an independent candidate bolstered by a vigorous campaign might shake up traditional dynamics, forcing both Dravidian factions to strategize for the 2026 horizon fervently. BJP plans a potent campaign in anticipation of the assembly elections.
Source: aajtak
In similar strides to Tamil Nadu, where BJP under Annamalai's helm aims to rise as an alternative to the two regional giants, in Kerala too it hopes to shift the focus beyond the UDF and LDF coalitions. Surveys point to a lead for BJP in Thrissur, Attingal, and Thiruvananthapuram, with significant heavyweights like actor Suresh Gopi challenging the normative polls.
Source: aajtak
Election Results to Disprove Opposition's Fiscal Accusations
Months-long narratives by the India bloc allege South's meager reciprocation from the national coffer compared to their contribution. States like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala accuse the Center of fiscal discrimination. A substantial vote and seat yield for BJP in the south would deflate this argument and outrightly communicate people's dissent towards these claims.
Source: aajtak
The previous elections showcased that Southern votes differ from the Hindi belt. The 2024 elections test this theory and if these figures hold true, this election may very well be a seismic crossover event.
