As the Bihar elections approach at the year’s end, a sense of unease grips the JD(U). The party leadership had declared its support for the Waqf Amendment Bill, which was passed with 288 votes in the Lok Sabha and 128 votes in the Rajya Sabha.
Immediately after the bill’s passage in the Lok Sabha, five Muslim leaders of the party resigned, and others expressed disagreement with the legislation.
Resignations Among JD(U) Leaders
The State Secretary of JD(U) Minority Wing, Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik, along with Mohammad Kasim Ansari, Tabrez Siddiqui Alig, Nadeem Akhtar, and Raju Nair, have tendered their resignations. Additionally, JD(U) General Secretary and former Rajya Sabha MP Gulam Rasool Balyawi have also stepped down. Furthermore, JD(U) MLC Ghulam Ghaus has openly spoken against the party line.
The concern of JD(U) leaders seems rooted in the fear of losing the Muslim vote bank ahead of the Bihar elections. Although this fear may initially appear justified, statistics tell a different story. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar secured a significant share of the Muslim vote while distancing himself from Modi-led NDA, impacting RJD’s core vote bank. However, a closer look at the post-2015 scenario reveals an alternate narrative.
During the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Assembly elections, Nitish Kumar enjoyed robust support from Muslim voters while being part of the anti-Modi camp.
According to the CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey, JD(U) garnered 23.5% of the Muslim vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when they contested in alliance with the Communists. In the 2015 Assembly elections, as a part of the Grand Alliance, they secured nearly 80% of the Muslim vote.
Shift After 2015
Joining the Modi-led NDA alliance post-2015 altered the dynamics. The JD(U) alliance could capture only 5% of the Muslim vote in the 2020 Assembly elections, a sharp decline compared to 2015 when the RJD coalition helped JD(U) secure substantial votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, JD(U) alliances were voted by only 6% of Muslims compared to RJD’s overwhelming 80% support.
This trend persisted in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, with merely 12% of Muslims voting for the JD(U) alliance, reflecting a near 50% drop from the 2014 status.
Based on the 2011 census, Bihar’s Muslim population stood at 1,75,57,809 (17% of the state’s total population).
According to the 2024 Lok Sabha data, Bihar houses 7,64,33,329 registered voters. If we extrapolate from the 2011 census ratio of 17%, the estimated number of Muslim voters in Bihar reaches approximately 1,29,93,667.
Who Did Muslims Vote for in Bihar? (Source: CSDS)
Analyzing Bihar’s Muslim-majority districts, where the Muslim populace exceeds 30%, JD(U) was victorious in 7 out of 24 constituencies in the 2015 Lok Sabha polls as part of the Grand Alliance. However, in 2020, contesting with NDA, JD(U) managed to win only in three districts.
This clearly indicates a pattern: every time JD(U) aligned with the Modi-led NDA, they lost Muslim support.
Muslim-majority Districts in Bihar (Source: Census 2011 and Election Commission of India)
An analysis regarding the performance of JD(U)’s Muslim candidates underlines the stark difference in outcomes when allied with Modi’s NDA versus independently.
Election data reveal that in 2015, JD(U) fielded seven Muslim candidates, of whom five emerged victorious. However, in 2020, despite fielding 11 Muslim candidates, none from JD(U) could win.
JD(U) Muslim Candidates' Performance (Source: ECI)
This highlights that JD(U)’s alliance with BJP post-2015 led to losing the Muslim vote bank. Fielding numerous Muslim candidates in 2020 too failed to work in favor of Nitish Kumar’s party.
Supporting the Waqf Amendment Bill will not result in JD(U) losing Muslim votes in the future as the party has not maintained a Muslim vote bank post-2015.
