The by-elections for four assembly seats in Bihar transpired ahead of next year's state elections, serving as a crucial indicator of voter sentiment. In an unexpected twist, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) claimed victory on all four seats, delivering a significant blow to the opposition Grand Alliance. Despite their previous wins in 2020, the Grand Alliance failed to retain even a single seat.
In this political showdown, the Grand Alliance saw defeat on the Ramgarh, Tarari, and Belaganj seats. In Gaya's Imamganj seat, Jeetan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) maintained its win. Tarari, which was secured by the Left in 2020, witnessed BJP's candidate, Vishal Prashant, triumph over the challenge posed by Left's Raju Yadav, thus blooming the BJP's lotus in the constituency.
In Belaganj, RJD fielded Vishwanath Yadav, son of former MLA Surendra Yadav, only to be outmaneuvered by JD(U)'s Manorama Devi. Meanwhile, in Kaimur's Ramgarh, Ajit Singh, son of Jagdanand Singh, faced defeat, marking a significant loss for a seat that was once a stronghold for their family.
BJP's Ashok Singh celebrated a victory in Ramgarh against BSP's candidate. Jeetan Ram Manjhi’s daughter-in-law, Deepa Manjhi, secured the Imamganj seat, while the Grand Alliance was left hollow-handed. Before these by-elections, RJD had a lock on two of these seats, and their alliance partner, the Left, held one. Now, these defeats could pose a risk to Tejashwi Yadav and the opposition's prospects going forward.
It is noteworthy that these results emerge with Bihar projecting itself towards upcoming state elections, symbolizing a semi-final before the finals. Questions over Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership are likely to surface as the Grand Alliance not only lost their grip on traditionally safe seats but also struggled to open its account.
Did RJD’s Strategy Backfire?
RJD faced backlash for fielding candidates primarily from influential political families. The outcome revealed this to be a fraught approach, as experienced in Ramgarh where Ajit Singh, Jagdanand Singh’s son, failed to gain traction. Similarly, Vishwanath Yadav floundered in Belaganj, despite being the offspring of Surendra Yadav.
The significant loss for the Left-backed RJD candidate, Raju Yadav in Tarari, might be a cause for Tejashwi Yadav's concern. The RJD-Left alliance had previously thrived in this region, aiding Tejashwi in past elections, now foreshadowing challenging times ahead for the opposition.
Key Dynamics in Tarari’s Outcome
- The BJP's triumph in Tarari was chiefly due to consolidated NDA votes, unlike 2020 when their divide paved a path for Left’s Sudama Prasad.
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- Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party's entry evidently had limited influence, failing to dent NDA's voter base, although it attempted to represent upper-caste voices through Kiran Singh.
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- BJP’s strategic upper-caste representation, embodied in Sunil Pandey’s son, transformed voter dynamics, favoring BJP, thereby reclaiming the seat.
The Manjhi Factor in Imamganj
- The deciding factor here were votes from the Manjhi and Paswan communities, aiding NDA’s Deepa Manjhi, Jeetan Ram Manjhi’s daughter-in-law's win.
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- Jan Suraj candidate Jitendra Paswan’s vote haul was considerable, though had he not been in play, RJD's Roshan Manjhi might have emerged victorious.
Family Politics Backfires in Ramgarh and Belaganj
- In Ramgarh, resentment grew around RJD's choice of Ajit Singh, while core RJD supporters rallied behind BSP’s Satish Yadav instead.
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- RJD’s decision in Belaganj to field Surendra Yadav’s progeny faced local pushback, with JD(U) successfully swaying votes from the Yadav base and consolidating support for Manorama Devi, leading to her triumph over Vishwanath Yadav.
- Notable here was also the vote division induced by Muslim candidates from Jan Suraj and Owaisi’s party competing in Belaganj, further scattering RJD’s voter reserve.
