Bihar is gearing up for assembly elections by October-November. Political parties are strategizing to capture votes in different regions. Tejashwi Yadav, the CM face of the opposition Grand Alliance led by RJD, has promised to set up a Seemanchal Development Authority if elected. Meanwhile, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) anticipates gaining Hindu and backward Muslim votes in this Muslim-majority area, thanks to the new Waqf Act. The question remains: Will the Waqf bill change Seemanchal's political arithmetic this time?
Understanding Seemanchal's Political Dynamics
To grasp Seemanchal's political dynamics, its geography must be understood. The region shares inter-state borders with West Bengal and international borders with Nepal, and it is close to the Bangladesh border. Seemanchal encompasses four districts of Bihar—Katihar, Purnia, Araria, and Kishanganj. These districts have 24 assembly seats predominantly with Muslim populations. According to the caste census, Muslims account for about 18% of the total population of the state. In these four districts, Muslims account for 68% in Kishanganj, 43% in Araria, 45% in Katihar, and 39% in Purnia.
Impact of Owaisi on RJD in 2020
Seemanchal was once a stronghold for Lalu Yadav's RJD and the Congress, but the last election witnessed a surprising performance by the BJP. The BJP emerged as the largest party, winning eight out of 24 seats. The Congress secured five seats, Janata Dal (United) four, and CPI (ML) and RJD each won one.
During the same election, Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) surprised everyone by clinching five seats. It is believed that AIMIM's performance was a contributing factor in the Grand Alliance, led by RJD, winning only seven seats in this region. AIMIM's candidates also secured second place in three other constituencies.
Lok Sabha Election Results Excite the Grand Alliance
The results of the last Lok Sabha elections have boosted the Grand Alliance’s morale. Out of the four seats in Seemanchal, the Grand Alliance captured two. Rebel Congress candidate turned independent, Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, also registered a resounding victory. The NDA could only hold on to one seat, Araria, where Pradeep Kumar Singh of the BJP won. Pappu Yadav has shown inclinations toward supporting Congress, making the Lok Sabha election outcome weigh heavily in favor of the Grand Alliance over NDA in Seemanchal.
Will the Waqf Bill Reshape Seemanchal?
In Seemanchal, on average, each assembly segment has about 36-37% Muslim voters. The BJP and NDA are hopeful of securing support from backward and economically disadvantaged Muslims following the Waqf law. The leaders of the Grand Alliance, however, remain confident of retaining support from the Muslim community alongside secular voters. How the Waqf bill will alter Seemanchal's political landscape, and which side it will favor, remains to be revealed by Bihar's assembly election results.
