The Bihar election results are set to impact the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) on multiple fronts. In this election, RJD fielded candidates on 143 seats but could only secure victory in 25. This might lead to a unique situation, where by 2030, RJD will have no representation in the Rajya Sabha for the first time in three decades.
By 2030, when Bihar assembly elections are held, the reduced number of RJD legislators means the party will struggle to have a voice in the Rajya Sabha. Even with support from Owaisi's AIMIM, sending an RJD MP to the Upper House will remain a challenge.
This time around, RJD and AIMIM contested elections separately in Bihar, and in many seats, they ended up defeating each other's candidates.
Currently, RJD has five MPs in the Rajya Sabha. According to a Times of India report, as these MPs' terms conclude, RJD's presence in the Rajya Sabha will dwindle. The report suggests that by the time elections to the vacant Rajya Sabha seats occur in 2026 and 2028, it will not be easy for RJD to secure a seat, even with AIMIM's support.
In the 2030 Rajya Sabha elections, AIMIM's backing might barely help Lalu Yadav's party retain a seat. However, this appears unlikely, as minor parties often vote based on prevailing political convenience, equations, and self-interest during Rajya Sabha elections.
The existing five RJD MPs in the Rajya Sabha include party leaders Prem Chand Gupta and AD Singh, who will retire in April 2026. The third MP, Fayaz Ahmed, is slated for retirement in July 2028.
The remaining MPs, Manoj Kumar Jha and Sanjay Yadav, will complete their tenure in April 2030.
If before April 2030, the RJD fails to secure enough MLAs in any state assembly election to ensure at least one Rajya Sabha MP, the party will have no representation there after April 2030.
In 2026, elections for five vacant Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar will be held. Two of these currently belong to JDU and one to the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, both NDA allies. Given the current strength of the new Bihar Assembly, NDA is poised to win all five seats.
Similarly, five Rajya Sabha members will retire in 2028, including three from BJP, one from JDU, and one from RJD. These five seats are also expected to be won by NDA.
