Manohar Lal, extensively lauded by PM Narendra Modi just 24 hours earlier, was now bestowing his blessings upon his close associate Naib Singh Saini as the new Chief Minister. Generally, any changes within the BJP's Chief Ministers pass peacefully, but the transformation in Haryana wasn't without significant reasons behind it.
The BJP changed Chief Ministers in Gujarat and won the elections. They did the same in Tripura and claimed victory. In Uttarakhand, they switched Chief Ministers twice and still won. However, a similar move in Karnataka didn't bring the BJP a win. It now remains to be seen what advantages this recent change brings to the BJP in Haryana.
Unanswered Questions
The scriptwriting for Manohar Lal's departure from the Chief Minister's office mimicked the narrative penned over nine years ago when he became the Chief Minister directly from being a first-time legislator. Why were Chief Ministers suddenly changed in Haryana, where the BJP had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019? Why did this shocking change take place in a state where the BJP previously won nine out of 10 seats with more than fifty percent of the votes?
PM Modi shared an anecdote saying, 'Manohar and I are old-time allies. Since the days of joint mat sleeping, he had a motorcycle, which I often rode pillion on, charting our journeys from Rohtak to Gurugram.'
Khattar, after inaugurating a close ally as the new Chief Minister, maintains a facade of peace in politics. Is this calm transition hiding a profound political strategy for Haryana's future?
Political Strategy: Two Birds with One Stone
While Congress and AAP have shared seats in Delhi, in Punjab they are competing separately, keeping a third force at bay. Is a similar formula in play for Haryana? Speculations cite distancing from Dushyant Chautala's party and replacing one's own Chief Minister as a move to control the anti-incumbent sentiments and prevent Congress from carving out a larger share of the Jat votes.
The BJP's shake-up could be a calculated political move, underlying fears of anti-government sentiments or a consolidation of the Jat vote towards Congress. An understanding of the previous vote math is paramount here.
Is the Jat Vote the Real Reason?
Focussing on the Jat vote that inclines below forty percent towards BJP in Haryana might reveal the true political gambit behind the surprising governmental overhaul.
The BJP has made a bold statement by appointing Naib Singh Saini, an OBC face, as Chief Minister, countering the Congress strategy to woo OBC votes with their promise of reservation.
The framing of the Chief Ministerial narrative tells not just numbers but a story in a diverse country like India, where electoral statistics open new realms in political science.
