A thrilling yet unnerving revelation is making headlines. Introducing: Asteroid 2024 YR4. Experts predict it could strike the Moon by 2032. Presently, the impact likelihood is just 4%, but come February 2026, the world's most powerful telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, will take a closer look. The fresh insights could suddenly hike the probability to 30% or even higher.
Originally discovered in late 2024, initial fears were that it might impact Earth. It posed a significant threat, with more than a 3% chance of colliding with our planet. However, further images revealed the Earth was safe, though a new concern emerged—a potential impact on the Moon.
The asteroid measures approximately 50-100 meters in size, about the size of a football field.
A collision would result in an enormous crater on the lunar surface.
Millions of small debris pieces would be flung into space.
These fragments could collide with Earth's thousands of orbiting satellites, crucial for internet, GPS, and weather forecasting.
Even a single satellite dysfunction could disrupt global internet, telephony, and navigation.
In the coming February, the James Webb Telescope will only briefly observe it closely. Post-February, the asteroid will venture too close to the Sun and won't be visible for years. If February's findings indicate a 30% or higher collision risk, scientists will have a span of 6-7 years to act.
Source: aajtak
Indeed, plans could already be underway. Utilizing past success from NASA's DART mission, where they altered an asteroid's path, they could dispatch a small spacecraft in 2028-2029 to nudge 2024 YR4 just enough to avoid the Moon. This undertaking requires immediate funding and strategy development.
The probability now is only 4% (meaning 96 times out of 100, it would miss the Moon).
More precise data will be available by February 2026.
Even if the threat increases, there's time to intervene.
For now, keep your eyes to the skies. By February 2026, the directives from the James Webb may determine whether humanity needs to embark on a grand mission.
