Chandrababu Naidu's Arrest Could Spell Major Trouble for CM Jagan?

Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections might see an NDA win with a forecasted 98-120 seats as per India Today-Axis My India exit poll.
The anticipated shift in Andhra Pradesh's political landscape post-elections emerges in the latest exit polls.

Source: aajtak

A dramatic upset appears to be looming in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections. According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the NDA is projected to form the government in Andhra, securing between 98 to 120 seats out of the 175 assembly seats. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is expected to garner 55 to 77 seats.

If the exit poll predictions hold, Andhra Pradesh is about to witness a stark change in governance just five years after the sweeping victory of Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress, which won 151 seats in the 2019 elections. At the same time, TDP narrowed down to just 23 seats.

However, this time TDP might resurface as the largest party, estimated to secure 78-96 seats. TDP is projected to receive 42% of the votes. In contrast, YSR Congress is expected to capture 44% of the votes but a significant seat reduction is anticipated.

But how did this reversal of fortunes come about? Just how is it that Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress, which stormed into power with over 150 seats five years ago, is now on the verge of sitting in the opposition?

Pradeep Gupta, Managing Director and Chairman of Axis My India, explains that until last year, everything was in favor of Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra. He enjoyed popularity among the electorate, but the detention of former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu last year was a turning point, garnering him voter sympathy which is now reflecting in the polls.

NDA's potential victory anticipated in Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections according to India Today-Axis My India exit poll.

Source: aajtak

The Game-Changer in Andhra

Pradeep Gupta details that the arrest of Chandrababu Naidu last year, followed by Pawan Kalyan’s visiting him, completely shifted the momentum. Everything Jagan Mohan Reddy did thereafter seemed to backfire, including major party figures leaving YSR Congress for TDP after party ticket rejections.

Anticipation of NDA’s win in Andhra Pradesh's Assembly elections as per India Today-Axis My India exit poll.

Source: aajtak

Pawan Kalyan Emerges as a Major Factor

In the previous election, the BJP, TDP, and Pawan Kalyan’s JanaSena contested separately. However, this time they have joined forces and campaigned against Jagan Mohan Reddy, which has shown significant impact.

Pawan Kalyan played a pivotal role in uniting BJP and TDP. The two parties parted ways in 2018, but last year’s arrest of Chandrababu Naidu saw Kalyan convincing him to join NDA.

According to Rajdeep Sardesai, Consulting Editor for India Today, September became a turning point in Andhra's politics, marked by the CID’s arrest of Chandrababu Naidu. Pawan Kalyan was instrumental in bridging the gap between Naidu and Prime Minister Modi thereafter.

Sardesai also mentioned that while Jagan Mohan Reddy followed all the actions desired by the Prime Minister inside and outside the parliament, he never agreed to an alliance due to his core supporters being Muslim and Christian. Therefore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi found it more beneficial to align with Chandrababu Naidu.

NDA's Expected Success in Lok Sabha as Well

Most of Andhra Pradesh's 25 Lok Sabha seats are expected to be won by NDA, with projections showing them securing 21 to 23 seats, while YSR Congress may only clinch 2 to 4 seats.

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