The 2020 Bihar assembly elections witnessed a narrow margin between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Grand Alliance, with just over 12,000 votes separating them (a mere 0.03 percent of the total votes). This slim margin highlighted the intense competition between the alliances, ultimately resulting in an NDA victory. However, a closer examination reveals that despite NDA's win, the strength of its individual parties was not entirely reflected in their electoral outcomes.
This analysis is based on two main criteria: first, the number of seats where each party secured either the first or second position over the past four elections, and second, the constituencies where a party garnered 30 percent or more of the votes. In Bihar, the NDA consists of five parties: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JDU), Lok Janshakti Party - Ram Vilas (LJP-RV), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).
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Source: aajtak
LJP's Performance in Bihar Elections
The LJP opted to contest the 2020 Bihar assembly elections outside the NDA and managed to win just one seat, despite securing second place in 18 constituencies and obtaining more than 30 percent of the votes in three constituencies. The party has now rejoined the NDA and is demanding a significant share of the seat allocation.
Source: aajtak
Under Chirag Paswan's leadership, the Lok Janshakti Party - Ram Vilas has oscillated between being part of the NDA and other alliances. A division occurred within the party before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when Chirag's uncle, Pashupati Paras, staked a claim on LJP. Historically, LJP has also partnered with the Grand Alliance led by RJD in previous elections. Consequently, past performance may not accurately reflect its current strength.
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Nevertheless, over the past four assembly elections, the LJP managed to secure more than 30 percent of the votes in 15 constituencies—a significant figure, considering the constituencies where it placed either first or second.
Parity Between BJP and JDU
The analysis indicates that the electoral strengths of the BJP and Nitish Kumar's JDU are nearly equivalent. When assessing constituencies where both parties received more than 30 percent of the votes, the BJP and JDU accounted for 98 and 97 seats, respectively.
Source: aajtak
On the basis of being in either the first or second place, BJP and JDU appear equally powerful. Across Bihar, BJP held either the first or second position in 152 seats, while this figure stood at 151 for JDU. For the analysis, we aggregated the average numbers of wins and runner-up positions to signify strong seats.
Reports suggest that in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, JDU might contest 102 seats while BJP contests 101. This consideration persists despite JDU winning only 43 seats with slightly over 15 percent of the votes in 2020, against BJP's 74 seats with nearly 20 percent. Yet, JDU's strong performance in previous elections could bolster its bargaining power within the alliance.
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Performance of Other NDA Allies
Jitan Ram Manjhi's party, Hindustani Awam Morcha, having contested two assembly elections (2015 and 2020) in Bihar, retains influence in specific areas, especially in the Gaya and Aurangabad districts. Meanwhile, Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha, a relatively new entrant—originally the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party—has alternated between the NDA and the Grand Alliance over time.
Overall, our analysis underscores that while BJP and JDU remain the mainstays of NDA strength in Bihar, the electoral influence of allied parties largely derives from their association with these two key players. It's likely that, in any seat-sharing formula, BJP and JDU will bear these insights in mind, despite demands for larger portions from leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi.
