Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Purnia, Bihar, on Monday, a place where the Bharatiya Janata Party's success has varied over the years. Analyzing the last five assembly elections, the party's influence sways between dominance and setback in the four districts of Seemanchal: Araria (6 seats), Purnia (7 seats), Katihar (7 seats), and Kishanganj (4).
In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, BJP contested 11 seats in this region and clinched 8. The party secured 3 seats each in Araria and Katihar, while capturing 2 seats in Purnia. However, none of the BJP candidates won in Kishanganj district.
Source: aajtak
In the 2015 assembly election, BJP gained 6 seats from this area. Again, Kishanganj didn't favor the party, while the remaining three districts offered the BJP 2 seats each. The year 2010 marked the party's best performance, as it contested 16 assembly seats and secured victory in 13 of them. In Katihar, the BJP won 5 out of 7 seats, while they earned 4 seats each in Araria and Purnia.
In the previous assembly election in Katihar, BJP contested three seats and won them all. The district houses a total of seven seats. In 2010, the BJP enjoyed a 100% success rate in Katihar, though the situation drastically switched in 2015, revealing a 33% strike rate for the saffron party.
Source: aajtak
Araria consistently presents a favorable situation for BJP, with its strike rate never dipping below 50% over the past five assembly elections. In 2020, BJP competed for 4 seats, grabbing victory in 3. In 2015, the party won 2 out of 4 seats, and in 2010, the BJP triumphed in 4 of the 5 seats contested.
Kishanganj remains forbidden territory for the saffron party; from February 2005 to 2020, BJP hasn't gained a single seat there.
Purnia, where PM Modi held a rally today, has been a bellwether district. In 2020, BJP's strike rate here was 67%. Astonishingly, in 2010 it soared to 80%, only to decline to 40% in 2015. This seesaw district is pivotal in steering toward victory, hence it's no surprise Prime Minister Modi decided to kick off his Bihar campaign from here.
