The looming question before the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections is, which party holds the advantage on Muslim-majority seats? In 2021, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) nearly swept these regions. Yet, these seats haven’t always been TMC's stronghold.
We are discussing the 85 assembly seats spread across five districts—Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Birbhum, and South 24 Parganas. These districts have a Muslim population between 35% and 66%, much higher than the state average. Murshidabad (66.3%) and Malda (51.3%) are prominently Muslim-majority. This is followed by Uttar Dinajpur (49.9%), Birbhum (37.1%), and South 24 Parganas (35.6%).
The Journey from Congress-Left to TMC
The 2011 assembly elections saw Congress and the Left Front dominating these 85 seats. TMC secured 36 seats, with a strong performance in South 24 Parganas.
In Murshidabad, Congress won 14 seats, and the Left secured six, while TMC managed only one seat. A similar scenario unfolded in Malda, with Congress and the Left taking eight and six seats respectively, while TMC again only secured one seat. In Uttar Dinajpur, out of nine seats, Congress and the Left each won three, with TMC grabbing two.
At that time, the BJP had no presence on these 85 seats.
The Shift in 2016
The 2016 elections marked the beginning of a shift. TMC increased its seat count in Murshidabad to four, maintaining Congress' 14 seats but reducing the Left's influence.
For the first time, the BJP marked its presence by winning a seat in these Muslim-dominated areas. Overall, TMC reached 46 seats, while the Congress-Left alliance was reduced to 38.
Source: aajtak
TMC's Dominance in 2021
The 2021 elections proved decisive. TMC claimed 75 out of 85 seats, indicating a significant consolidation of Muslim votes in their favor.
In Murshidabad, TMC won 20 out of 22 seats, with the remaining two going to BJP, leaving Congress and the Left with no representation. In Malda, TMC took eight of the 12 seats, with BJP winning four. In Uttar Dinajpur, TMC claimed seven seats, and BJP secured two. Birbhum saw TMC winning 10 out of 11 seats, with BJP taking one. In South 24 Parganas, TMC emerged victoriously in 30 out of 31 seats.
What Lies Ahead in 2026?
The data from the last three elections clearly indicates a dramatic political shift in Muslim-majority districts. The Congress-Left stronghold has shifted to TMC, with BJP emerging as the primary opposition. The question remains whether TMC can maintain its hold on these seats despite a 15-year tenure of anti-incumbency. The results of these 85 seats in the 2026 elections will determine the direction of Muslim votes and the next chapter in Bengal's political narrative.
