The picture is clear for the by-elections on nine legislative assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. With the final nomination date being October 25, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have announced their candidates a day prior. The Samajwadi Party (SP) has also unveiled candidates for the remaining seats after clarifying its alliance with Congress. Some have chosen to extend successful strategies from the Lok Sabha elections, while others attempt to correct past mistakes. From the SP and BJP to BSP, three strategic experiments in ticket distribution are observable.
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SP's 'Faizabad Formula' for Ghaziabad Seat
SP had previously selected a Dalit leader as a candidate for the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat in Ayodhya district during the Lok Sabha elections, a general seat. The party has repeated this strategy for the Ghaziabad Sadar assembly seat in the by-elections. Ghaziabad is also a general seat, and SP has fielded Singh Raj Jatav here, marking the first time the party has placed a Dalit face on a general seat. The Dalit card proved successful in Faizabad, with the party triumphing on this prestigious seat.
Though Ghaziabad is considered a BJP stronghold, whether this formula works or fails will be determined by election results. SP has distributed tickets based on the PDA (Progressive Democratic Alliance) formula. They have bet on two Dalit candidates, Dr. Charu Kain from Khair (reserved) in Aligarh and Singh Raj Jatav from Ghaziabad, while also fielding four Muslim and three backward candidates. Muslim candidates for SP include Mohammad Rizwan from Kundarki, Naseem Solanki from Sisamau, Mustafa Siddiqui from Phulpur, and Sumbul Rana from Meerut. The party has also fielded Tej Pratap Yadav from Karhal, Shobhavati Verma from Katehari, and Jyoti Bind from Majhwan as OBC (Other Backward Class) representatives.
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BJP Retouches its Cadre and OBC Formula
During the Lok Sabha elections, BJP generously allocated tickets to leaders from other parties. This was identified as a contributing factor to their underperformance. To amend this in the by-elections, BJP has focused on its cadre. Out of the nine seats in UP, BJP is contesting eight, leaving one for its ally RLD. Four of the eight candidates announced are from the cadre, and the party has also rewarded Sanjeev Sharma, who left SP 17 years ago.
BJP's candidate for the Karhal seat, Anujesh Yadav, was previously with SP, while the Katehari candidate, Dharma Raj Nishad, served as a minister in Mayawati's government before joining SP. Deepak Patel from Phulpur also won elections previously on a BSP ticket from Karchhana seat. In total, four candidates joined BJP from other parties, while four loyal organizational leaders have also been awarded tickets, striking a balance between cadre and outsiders. Suchismita Maurya's ticket was withdrawn in 2022 but is now reinstated.
In terms of caste equations, BJP's list predominantly includes OBCs. From this category, Anujesh Yadav, Deepak Patel, Dharma Raj Nishad, and Suchismita Maurya have secured BJP tickets along with two Brahmins—Suresh Awasthi from Sisamau and Sanjeev Sharma from Ghaziabad. Rajput leader Ramveer Thakur is BJP's candidate from Kundarki, while the party bets on Dalit face Surendra Diller from the Khair reserved seat. The distribution strategy reflects a clear focus on balancing the cadre and emphasizing OBCs.
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BSP's 2007-style Candidate List Experiment
Under Mayawati's leadership, BSP crafted a social engineering strategy in 2007 that led to a solo majority government. Various experiments were tried post-2012, seeking to ally Dalits with Muslims or backward classes, yet all failed. Now, BSP revisits the 2007 Dalit-Brahmin formula. The party announced eight candidates for the nine-seat by-elections, comprising two Brahmins, a Thakur, a Vaishya, two Muslims, and two from backward classes the day before.
BSP has fielded Deepak Tiwari for the Majhwa seat in Mirzapur and Virendra Kumar Shukla for Sisamau seat, both Brahmin figures. It has placed Thakur leader Jitendra Kumar Singh for Phulpur and chosen Vaishya PN Garg for Ghaziabad. Muslim candidates Shahnaaz from Meerut and Rafatullah alias Chhida from Kundarki have been tapped, along with Dr. Avnish Kumar Shakya from Karhal and Amit Verma from Katehari representing the backward classes.
