In the next 24 hours, the monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala, about a week ahead of schedule. This year marks the earliest arrival in 16 years, with favorable conditions lining up for Kerala's monsoon arrival. A low-pressure area and advancing monsoon system have brought heavy rain across many Kerala regions over the past two days. The last early onset was in 2009 and 2001, when it arrived on May 23.
Kerala's official monsoon onset date is June 1. However, the singular early onset was on May 11, 1918. In contrast, the latest historical onset was June 18, 1972. The most recent significant delay was in 2016, with an onset on June 9.
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Monsoon Could Arrive in Kerala in 24 Hours
According to an IMD statement, 'Conditions are likely to become favorable for monsoon onsets in Kerala over the next 2-3 days.' This prediction aligns with the IMD's May 27 deadline, plus a four-day model error margin. Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala by May 30. Timely monsoon onset is crucial for India, with about 70% of its annual rainfall occurring from June to September.
Source: aajtak
Monsoon rain is vital for irrigating crops and replenishing water reserves, impacting agriculture and the rural economy. IMD forecasts above-average rainfall in 2025, boosting Kharif crop production prospects. Increased yields could boost rural incomes, enhance food security, and heighten agriculture’s economic contribution.
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Low Pressure System Developing Over Eastern Arabian Sea
Beyond Kerala, IMD forecasts the southwest monsoon to advance across the southern and central Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin region, parts of Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, southern and central Bay of Bengal, and northeast states within this period. Concurrently, a low-pressure weather system is developing over the eastern central Arabian Sea, south of the Konkan-Goa coast. It may intensify while heading north in the next 36 hours, impacting local weather with rain and windy conditions across parts of the western coast.
Source: aajtak
With hopes high for relief from ongoing heat across some regions, monsoon progress is being closely watched. So far, no significant delays or deviations have been detected, boding well for rain-dependent agricultural areas nationwide. Northern Indian states may see the monsoon arrive between June 25-30, with typically later seasonal changes compared to south and central areas. Western India monsoon rains are forecasted between June 15-20.
