Iran is currently making headlines worldwide. A massive public uprising has erupted against the regime of long-ruling religious leader Ali Khamenei. Clashes between military forces and citizens have resulted in over 600 deaths. If the situation escalates, it is possible that Supreme Leader Khamenei will have to flee Tehran. With strained relations with most countries, Iran may have only one option left – Moscow.
Anti-government protests have been ongoing in Iran for the past two weeks, spreading from Tehran to over 180 cities. People are displeased with religious leader Ali Khamenei as his rule has not alleviated inflation or improved governance, with reports of oppression against women being widespread. The rallying cry 'Death to the Dictator' echoes, with Khamenei being the implied target of dissatisfaction.
The uprising poses a potential threat to Khamenei's security. Speculations abound that he and some close family members might seek refuge in Russia, or may have already done so, as per a report by The Times citing an anonymous intelligence source.
Ali Khamenei, as Iran's Supreme Religious Leader, holds authority above any state governance. Thus, if he seeks asylum, offering refuge will be no simple matter for the host nation. In Tehran, he is protected by a robust security layer, including the police and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Ensuring similar protection in another country will be a critical prerequisite.
Furthermore, Iran has fraught relations with many nations. The U.S. remains aggrieved due to Iran's nuclear program, while tensions with Israel persist. Relations with various Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have deteriorated over the decades. The Arab League remains distant, and Europe views Iranian extremism with skepticism.
Source: aajtak
Surrounded by adversaries, Iran needs a host nation that is strong and steadfast, bringing Russia into the picture. Moscow and Tehran share a common rival – the United States, which has imposed stringent sanctions on Iran. Likewise, Russia faces severe sanctions following the Ukraine conflict, leading both countries to support each other.
The Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape further strengthens their ties, with Syria being an example. Both Russia and Iran collaborated to sustain Bashar Al-Assad's government, with Russia providing air support and Iran offering ground network and militia support. This collaboration has heightened military and strategic trust between them.
Their economic hardships, exacerbated by sanctions, also bind them. Both countries are cut off from Western markets, pushing them to cooperate on oil, gas, arms, and technology.
Western opposition, sanction pressures, and global strategic ambitions have brought Putin and Khamenei closer. They have publicly praised each other multiple times. Though not a personal friendship, this diplomatic relationship suffices for Khamenei to potentially seek refuge in Russia.
It is believed that Khamenei has a well-devised plan in place. Before fleeing, he'd aim to secure assets and properties abroad for an easier exit. He is said to have amassed a vast wealth network, with a significant portion linked to Setad, one of Iran's most powerful institutions. Setad, a key charitable foundation system, has long been under allegations of corruption.
Source: aajtak
A Reuters investigation about a decade ago suggested that Khamenei's assets might be worth around $95 billion, spanning land, real estate, companies, and other corporate shares. Interestingly, these assets are not directly under Khamenei's name but are in names he controls.
According to a report in The Times, if Khamenei feels his security agencies are disregarding his commands, his escape plan could be activated immediately. Though a military or security rebellion in Iran is hard to envisage, as Khamenei has positioned trusted individuals in key posts, if loyalty wavers, the exit plan could swiftly take effect.
If evacuation becomes necessary, Khamenei will likely not go alone. His potential successors, including his son Mojtaba Khamenei, and close political and security advisors involved in his private decisions could accompany him. Selected senior intelligence officials may also be included, particularly those with sensitive information regarding the country and the Supreme Leader.
Though Russia remains a considered option, no overt gestures have been noticed from Moscow yet. However, Russia has historically shown its willingness to support its allies, even at the cost of confrontation with the West. Bashar al-Assad in Syria is a testament to this stance. Nevertheless, Iran's scenario holds greater sensitivity. Offering refuge to Iran might provoke an aggressive reaction from America, especially amidst Russia's already strained ties due to the Ukraine war.
