The dates for the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand have been announced. In both states, there's a head-on battle between the BJP-led NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc. Maharashtra is governed by the NDA, whereas an opposition coalition led by JMM holds power in Jharkhand.
However, seat sharing has not yet been finalized in both states. BJP is hopeful after a successful performance in the Haryana assembly elections. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc is rapidly gearing up.
1. BJP to Collaborate with Allies in Jharkhand
The BJP expects a strong performance in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. The previous assembly results in Haryana boosted the morale of BJP leaders. In Jharkhand, BJP's main competition is with the ruling JMM-Congress alliance. This time, BJP is allying with AJSU, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Janata Dal United for the elections.
In the 2019 elections, BJP contested alone, while JMM allied with Congress and RJD. The alliance won 47 out of 81 total seats, while BJP managed only 25. At that time, BJP's CM candidate Raghubar Das was defeated by rebel leader Saryu Roy.
2. What are the Big Issues in Jharkhand?
Hemant Soren is the current Chief Minister of Jharkhand, supported by the Congress. Allegations of corruption surround him, and BJP has been highlighting these issues. However, BJP is strategizing to capitalize on Champai Soren's discontent, as he was made the temporary CM during Hemant's imprisonment.
After 5 months, when Hemant was released, Champai had to vacate his position and later joined BJP. Now, BJP is trying to woo the tribal vote bank with Champai's help. Tribals play a decisive role in Jharkhand elections, and BJP is attempting to sway this vote bank favorably. Inflation, unemployment, and economic disparity are also significant electoral issues. Opposition parties will voice these issues vigorously.
3. Challenges Before Hemant in Jharkhand
The government led by Hemant Soren faces anti-incumbency after five years. Allegations of corruption and demographic shifts in tribal areas are hot topics. BJP is criticizing the issue of religious conversions, with Hemant Soren also being embroiled in land scams. Though JMM and Soren allege that BJP tried to destabilize their government, the final outcome will be revealed post-election results.
The Congress is in an alliance with JMM, but it remains weak. The coalition's election performance will be crucial. BJP has advanced its tribal leadership strategy by appointing Droupadi Murmu as President, later making Mohan Majhi the Chief Minister in Odisha, and recently welcoming Champai Soren into BJP. This focus on the tribal community will be a significant factor in elections.
4. What are the Major Issues in Maharashtra?
In Maharashtra, the reservation issue is a significant topic, with opposition parties targeting the BJP-Mahayuti government. The Maratha community is demanding reservation under the OBC quota which is opposed by other backward classes, creating tension for months. The government has not found a resolution yet.
Meanwhile, the Dhangar community is demanding tribal status, opposed by the ST (Scheduled Tribes) community. Manoj Jarange Patil, a leader of the Maratha reservation movement, may influence several assembly constituencies. BJP faces the challenge of damage control and finding a middle path. Additionally, farmer movements and their issues in Maharashtra's rural areas will impact election results. Agrarian concerns remain critically important for all parties.
5. How Has Maharashtra Changed in 5 Years?
Currently, a Mahayuti government is in power in Maharashtra. Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde is the Chief Minister. NCP leader Ajit Pawar and BJP's Devendra Fadnavis serve as deputy CMs. Since the 2019 election results, there has been continuous upheaval. BJP initially contested with (unified) Shiv Sena. After the results, disputes arose over the CM position, leading Uddhav Thackeray to part ways. BJP then struck a deal with Ajit Pawar, leading to their swearing-in on November 23, 2019, but this government lasted only 80 hours as Ajit joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
MVA formed a government under Uddhav Thackeray, with Ajit as deputy CM. In June 2022, Eknath Shinde rebelled against Shiv Sena, aligning with BJP, leading to a shift in power. A year later, NCP saw a split, with Ajit joining the NDA government. As of now, Maharashtra hosts two separate Shiv Sena and NCP factions, with BJP allied with one faction of each.
The other factions are aligned with the Congress coalition. With the assembly election dates announced, rumors suggest that many leaders from Uddhav's Shiv Sena are communicating with BJP. Those leaders align ideologically closer to BJP, enhancing BJP's influence as Shiv Sena's traditional vote bank divides. Moreover, Raj Thackeray's MNS, though declining in political might, still influences Marathi voters to some extent.
6. What Has Transpired in Jharkhand Over 5 Years?
In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM and Congress coalition defeated BJP and formed the government, with Hemant Soren as the Chief Minister. JMM's base is strong among tribal voters, leveraging policies to engage this large segment. Yet, BJP, now in opposition, has worked on strengthening its organization but struggles for political comeback.
Opposition efforts to destabilize the Soren government failed, yet opposition unity might impact upcoming elections, especially if BJP forms major alliances. Allegations of illegal mining and land scams against Hemant Soren and his family have tarnished their political image. Although the Soren government remains stable, these issues might cause future trouble.
7. What is the Position in Maharashtra?
The Maharashtra elections are crucial for both Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The fall of Uddhav's MVA government in 2023 affected the coalition's standing. MVA accused BJP of causing divisions in Shiv Sena, forcing Uddhav's resignation. The opposition seeks to avenge what they deem a betrayal.
8. Will the Girl Sister Scheme Bolster Mahayuti's Governance?
Post-Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti expected more success, while the INDIA bloc gained votes and record seats. Consequently, Mahayuti revised strategies and announced notable schemes, including the Girl Sister Scheme and youth allowances, leading to money being deposited in bank accounts. These moves have increased challenges for MVA, observing whether citizens vote based on ideology, unemployment, corruption, drought, and politics or embrace reservations, caste equations, and new alliances.
9. Which Parties are in Play in Maharashtra?
Mahayuti:
BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar's NCP, and regional allies.
MVA:
Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, and CPM.
What About Parties in Jharkhand?
INDIA Bloc:
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, and leftist parties.
NDA:
BJP, AJSU, and JDU.
10. Who are the Key Leaders in Maharashtra?
Former CM and current deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis is a pivotal BJP figure in Maharashtra, known for administrative acumen and Maratha community support. Under Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena's faction with NDA is significant in election dynamics, while Ajit Pawar's joining of NDA adds intrigue.
A deputy CM, Ajit focuses on securing Maratha votes. NCP founder Sharad Pawar remains an influential figure despite party splits, impacting electoral outcomes. Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena in MVA influences Maratha votes, and Nana Patole leads Congress.
Who are the Key Leaders in Jharkhand?
In Jharkhand, CM Hemant Soren is the JMM's primary face. His tribal-focused policies and legal challenges regarding land issues are significant topics. Former CM Raghubar Das, now Odisha's governor, remains a notable BJP leader. First CM Babulal Marandi is a prominent BJP face, strong in tribal support.
Additionally, AJSU leader Sudesh Mahto has substantial local influence, aligning with BJP for elections. CPI (ML) leader Arup Chatterjee is a notable figure in leftist politics, representing workers and the poor, albeit marginally mainstream.
Legendary Jharkhand Movement leader Shibu Soren continues to bolster JMM's appeal. Young leader Amit Mahto supports regional causes and aids AJSU. Congress's Rameshwar Oraon, an influential tribal leader and Pradesh president, strengthens the party's base.
BJP's Role as Big Brother in Maharashtra & Jharkhand
BJP may announce its candidates for Maharashtra and Jharkhand within a day or two. A central election committee meeting is scheduled, finalizing names. BJP is pivotal in both states, preparing candidates for 150-160 seats in Maharashtra, and deliberating on 67-70 seats in Jharkhand.
