COVID-19 cases in India:
Following spikes in Singapore and Hong Kong, India too has witnessed a surge in COVID-19 cases over recent weeks. Numerous health agencies across the country are closely monitoring the situation, and several states have issued advisories. In China, the percentage of severely ill respiratory disease patients due to COVID-19 rose from 3.3% to 6.3% last month. The rate of A&E patients affected by the virus in Chinese hospitals jumped from 7.5% to 16.2%. Taiwan observed a 78% increase in hospitalizations due to COVID. Experts reassure there's no need for panic, but a common question looms: Why is COVID spreading again? Let's delve into doctors' insights on this phenomenon.
What's causing the rise in COVID cases?
Dr. Sanjit Sashidharan, Consultant and Head of Critical Care at SL Raheja Hospital in Mahim (Mumbai), discusses the constantly evolving nature of the virus and emerging variants. He notes, 'COVID testing is a part of most infectious disease panels now, leading to higher detection compared to the past. The accessibility of tests and increased awareness of distinguishing common colds from COVID-19 have contributed to a rise in reported cases.'
'The current virus appears milder, largely due to substantial natural immunity. Nagpur and Mumbai have seen a noticeable uptick in cases. However, COVID-19 spread remains minimal, nowhere near the levels witnessed during the initial global pandemic wave.' Dr. Vikas Maurya, Senior Director and Head of Pulmonology at Fortis Hospital, Shalimar Bagh, remarks, 'JN.1 has only caused mild to moderate symptoms with lower risk for severe illness so far. We observe mild symptoms, with very few cases resulting in severe complications. Experts are emphasizing testing and genomic surveillance to identify circulating variants. There's no need to panic.'
Will more cases emerge in the future?
Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra have reported the most cases in recent months. Nevertheless, these numbers are relatively low and shouldn't cause serious concern. Seasonal changes, including rain and temperature drops, have led to increased viral illnesses. Viral diseases, whether COVID-19 or others, tend to rise during colder months. It's important to recognize that 'natural immunity' in the population may decrease over time, potentially leading to more infections.
How do new variants arise?
Variants are categorized as Variants of Interest, Variants of Concern, and High-risk Variants. While the coronavirus itself doesn't create variants, COVID-19 experiences frequent variant formation. Whenever a virus infects a human cell, it begins to mutate, causing variations in its genetic makeup, potentially giving rise to new variants. Some mutations might render the virus less severe, while others could enhance its virulence.
How dangerous is the JN.1 Variant?
Dr. Sanjit elaborates, 'The JN.1 variant, which has been around for the past 8 to 12 months, is a descendant of BA.2.86 from the Omicron family. Recently, a new sub-variant named Nb.1.8.1 has been identified. It possesses multiple mutations that can evade natural immunity and easily infect the human body. Epidemiological studies and more data analyses are underway to understand the effects of infections caused by this variant.'
Source: aajtak
The rise in COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia is primarily due to the JN.1 variant, a descendant of the Omicron BA.2.86 variant. JN.1 spreads faster than its original strain. Its mutations help it bind more readily to human cells and evade immunity. The virus spreads similarly to previous COVID variants.
According to WHO, the JN.1 variant has approximately 30 mutations, with LF.7 and NB.1.8 being the two most common recently reported variants.
