On April 19, 2024, the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections will see polling across 102 seats in 21 states and union territories. This phase completely covers 10 states and union territories. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 40 of these seats, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) secured 24, and the Indian National Congress (INC) claimed 15.
Among the constituencies to vote in phase 1, nine are considered BJP and Congress bastions, where the same party has won all three Lok Sabha elections since 2009. The BJP has been victorious in Jabalpur, Churu, Bikaner, Sidhi, Pilibhit, and Balaghat, while Congress continues to hold Kaliabor, Chhindwara, and Shillong.
Contrarily, of the 102 constituencies in the first phase, 21 are swing seats, where the victor of the 2009 and 2019 elections was the same, but a different party won in 2014. In these 21 seats, the DMK emerged victorious in 13 during the 2009 and 2019 elections. Meanwhile, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) captured 12 seats in 2014; the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) claimed a win in Dharmapuri.
The Congress had triumphs in Sivaganga, Puducherry, Arani, and Virudhunagar in the 2009 and 2019 elections, but the AIADMK and the All India NR Congress wrested these from them in 2014.
Source: aajtak
Who is Strong in Phase 1?
We consider the party that has consecutively won a constituency in 2009, 2014, and 2019 as strong in our analysis. A party winning the same seat twice is deemed relatively strong, while winning only once is considered weaker, and a party not winning at all is deemed the weakest.
As you can see in the graphic, the BJP is strong in 6 of the seats where voting will take place in phase 1, while Congress is strong in 3. However, the DMK did not secure any seats three times in a row. The BJP is relatively strong in 32 seats, the DMK in 12 seats, and the Congress in 8 seats because they have won two elections on the same seat.
Conversely, the Congress is relatively weak on 38 seats, the DMK on 16, and the BJP on 13 because these parties have only won once in the three elections held from 2009 to 2019. The BJP is weak on 51 of the 102 seats, the DMK on 74, and the Congress on 53, as they were unable to win even once in these constituencies across the three elections.
Source: aajtak
Analysis of Vote Share
In 2019, the BJP contested 60 of the 102 seats in phase-1, obtaining more than 50% of the vote share on 34 seats, between 30-50% on 19 seats, and less than 30% on seven. On the other hand, the DMK faced elections on 24 seats in phase-1 of the last vote, winning all with over 50% of the votes on 19 seats, and between 30 to 50% on the remaining five.
Source: aajtak
The Congress competed in 65 of the 102 seats, securing votes above 50% on ten seats, between 30 to 50% on 36 seats, 10 to 30% on nine, and below 10% on the remaining 10 seats. Notably, this time voting in the Outer Manipur seat will take place in both phases 1 and 2.
