The Challenging WTC Maths for Team India

This is the fourth edition of the ICC World Test Championship, with New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa as victors in the first three cycles. Australia is dominating the current WTC cycle, leading the table with a perfect 100% score.
KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Dhruv Jurel, Ravindra Jadeja, Devdutt Padikkal, and Yashasvi Jaiswal

Source: aajtak

The Indian team faced a setback, losing the Kolkata Test match against South Africa by 30 runs. While chasing a modest target of 124 runs in the fourth innings, India faltered and was bowled out for just 93 runs by the third day. This defeat marks a blow to India's hopes in the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025-27.

Despite an impressive start in the current WTC cycle, where India managed to draw the Test series in England 2-2 and triumph over the West Indies 2-0 at home, the humiliating defeat against South Africa at Eden Gardens has halted their momentum.

Following the Kolkata Test loss, India has slipped to fourth position in the WTC standings with a PCT of 54.16. Leading India in the rankings are Australia (100%), South Africa (66.67%), and Sri Lanka (66.67%). However, India’s position remains stronger compared to teams like Pakistan, England, Bangladesh, and the West Indies.

India Still Has 10 More Matches

During the current WTC cycle, India has 10 matches yet to play. Next, they will face South Africa in a Test match in Guwahati. By August next year, they'll play two Tests in Sri Lanka. In October-November, they will head to New Zealand for two more matches. Then, in early 2027, India will host Australia for a five-Test series, which will conclude their campaign in the current WTC cycle.

WTC table depicting team standings and point percentages, with India facing competition from top teams

Source: aajtak

India was originally scheduled to play 18 Tests in the current WTC edition and has already completed 8. The remaining 10 matches provide a potential game-changer scenario, as rival teams will also be playing several matches in the upcoming months. Notably, New Zealand is yet to kick off their campaign.

In the 2019-21 cycle, New Zealand qualified for the finals with 70% points, while Australia missed out despite scoring 69.2. At that time, India reached the finals with 72.2% points, although the points system was different then. A new points system was introduced in the 2021-23 WTC cycle.

India qualified for the finals in 2021-23 with 58.8% points, whereas South Africa fell short with 55.56%. Australia, with a 67.54% score, secured their spot in the 2023-25 finals, while India, holding just 50% points, was left out, suggesting that a 55% score doesn't guarantee a final spot.

How Team India Can Reach the Finals

India aims for a 60% point threshold to secure a spot in the WTC Finals. To achieve this, they must win at least 6 out of the remaining 10 matches. Winning 6, losing 2, and drawing 2 will result in a point percentage of 61.11. Alternatively, winning 7 while losing 3 raises the percentage to 62.96. The advantage for India lies in playing 6 of the remaining 10 matches at home and 2 in Asia (against Sri Lanka), enhancing their qualification chances.

WTC team rankings are primarily determined by the point percentage, crucial for determining standings. The top two teams in the table after the league stages will advance to the finals. It's also important to note that points are deducted for slow over-rates, directly affecting team positions and PCT.

Points System in WTC

Victory: 12 points Tie: 6 points Draw: 4 points Defeat: 0 points

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