Local and national elections can take people by surprise; this was evident when the recent Lok Sabha election results caused a stir, particularly in Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, the political landscape took an unexpected turn with the INDIA block, including the standout victory of Congress leader Pappu Yadav in Purnia, claiming 10 seats. Against the predictions, the RJD-led INDIA coalition's influence, bolstered by Tejashwi Yadav's over 200 prolific rallies and a formidable social media presence, didn't translate into the expected gains. Now, with the people's decision out in the open, it's time to delve into the voter's choices and discern the underlying messages.
Stats don't fabricate stories—whether it's a review of electoral outcomes or any assessments, the numbers hold the highest importance, often harboring indications of the road ahead. As political parties dive into the analytical aftermath of Bihar's Lok Sabha 2024 results, intriguing patterns in voter data have emerged, promising to forecast impacts not only on the state politics but also on the next year's Vidhan Sabha elections.
1.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw the NDA clinch 30 seats in Bihar, while the INDIA block eked out victories in just 9 seats. The extra win tallied under Pappu Yadav's name as he triumphed as an independent from Purnia. Comparison points to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the NDA swept 39 seats and the INDIA block only secured one. The ensuring assembly elections handed NDA 125 seats and the coalition 110.
2.
NDA's margins of victory have either dwindled or tipped into defeats across Bihar's constituencies in the 2024 elections, as opposed to the 2019 races. The Mahagathbandhan's slender victory in Kishanganj by an approximate 34,000 votes was not merely defended but bolstered in the recent elections, now stretching to a 59,662 vote margin.
3.
INDIA block successfully captured all the parliamentary constituencies it had narrowly lost by margins under one lakh votes in the 2019 general elections. The NDA's previous wins in five constituencies—Jahanabad, Patliputra, Katihar, Aurangabad, and Karakat—dissipated into the INDIA block's count in this election.
5.
Analyzing constituencies with 2019 NDA margins between 150,000 to 200,000 votes shows a shift; the Sasaram seat now belongs to the INDIA block, with the Gaya and Munger seats sticking with the NDA, despite narrowed margins.
6.
Of NDA's triumphant march in the 2019 general elections where it secured significant margins of over 400,000 votes in three seats (Muzaffarpur, Begusarai, and Madhubani), the tide has changed. This time around, no constituency saw an NDA victory margin crossing 250,000 votes, with Muzaffarpur marking the largest at 234,927 votes.
7.
In a revisitation of the 18 constituencies where NDA celebrated victories with margins of 200,000 to 300,000 votes back in 2019, the Purnia seat alone has slipped away from NDA control. Congress's Pappu Yadav secured it independently. While the margin has shrunk on the remainder, 13 seats still recorded a win margin of at least 100,000 votes for the NDA camp.
