The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar has disrupted the political parties' peace. While the opposition is united against SIR, the BJP and its allies share a similar concern. Under SIR, the risk of names being removed from the voter list looms large, especially for migrant workers, leaving the BJP, JDU, and LJP worried. Estimates suggest around 37 percent of Bihar's electorate are migrants, primarily residing in cities like Delhi and Mumbai. These migrant voters predominantly support the NDA. However, the greatest threat during the voter list revision is the inability to create voter IDs for these migrants, turning it into a significant challenge for the NDA.
1- Severe Challenges for Migrant Workers from Bihar
With the 2025 assembly elections on the horizon, the Election Commission has initiated a special intensive revision of the voter list. The conditions imposed could result in the removal of nearly 20 million voters' names, including 9.4 million migrant workers. These migrants, working in cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Punjab, Gujarat, Haryana, Bangalore, and others, encompass about 37% of Bihar's population and hold significant sway in over 80 assembly constituencies.
The challenge lies in organizing the necessary new documents within such a short period. Traveling from major cities to hometowns to gather government documents is not easy. The Election Commission demands birth certificates, residence proof, and other government documents, making it more appealing for those lacking these documents to bypass the expense and inconvenience of returning home, opting instead not to vote.
2- Difficult Decision of Choosing One Place
The recent statement from the Chief Election Commissioner directly impacts migrant voters' existing IDs. According to the CEC, a voter's ID will only be valid in their place of residence. This implies that obtaining a voter ID in Delhi makes one ineligible for one in Patna. People who have established voter IDs in both locations must choose one, potentially creating an impact on a massive scale. For those with jobs in cities like Delhi, retaining their ID there may be more prudent, fearing potential employment issues if they relinquish it.
Increasing pressure could reduce Bihar's migrant voter population by more than half, predominantly affecting parties like the BJP and JDU. Consequently, roughly 20% of Bihar's voters might be unable to vote, with 15% of them being NDA supporters. It is evident that this voter list revision impacts the BJP and its allies more than the Mahagathbandhan.
3- Allies Express Dissatisfaction
The NDA leaders publicly advocate for the transparency and fairness of the process, yet internal discontent simmers. BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad dismisses opposition complaints, citing previous regimes plagued by booth capturing and violence. However, dissent within the NDA has emerged. Rashtriya Lok Morcha leader Upendra Kushwaha voiced concerns about time constraints, calling for additional time to maintain migrant voters' names on the list. JDU spokesperson Neeraj Kumar acknowledges the complexity brought about by time limitations and the failure to appoint booth-level agents.
In attempts to garner support from migrant voters, the BJP has launched initiatives like Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat, and entrusted 150 leaders with the task of connecting with migrant Bihar residents. These leaders, based on a 14-point questionnaire, are tasked with building a database and commencing outreach by August to encourage return trips to Bihar for voting. The BJP is clearly preparing to extensively welcome migrant voters back. But what can be done if voter IDs aren't created or names removed from the voter list?
4- Is There Hope for Relief?
The opposition's mounting resistance against SIR suggests that the Election Commission might retract its decision soon. Given that both the BJP and its allies have started voicing concerns, it’s apparent that the central government finds itself on the defensive. Historically, extensive opposition has led to the withdrawal of similar orders by the government.
Additionally, yachists from the opposition and organizations such as ADR and PUCL have approached the Supreme Court. The hearing set for July 10, 2025, could place restrictions on or amend the process. If the court nullifies the process, it might offer the NDA a reprieve.
Moreover, the commission has introduced online verification and relaxed document requirements. This could aid migrant workers, but the impact might still be limited due to a lack of awareness among many migrants.
NDA's Management Capability: The NDA's strategies, including outreach and awareness campaigns for migrant voters, could counteract risks. However, the lack of time and rural awareness complicates the effort.
