The final phase (7th round) of voting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections concluded today. The world awaits the results of the vote count on Tuesday, June 4, with bated breath, pondering the key question—whose government will take the helm this time. While the countdown has begun, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll has already unveiled its predictions. It includes a precise analysis of Uttar Pradesh's 80 parliamentary seats. This election saw SP and Congress form an alliance, while BJP forged its path to victory with the support of parties like Apna Dal (S), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), and Nishad Party. BSP decided to go solo in 2024 after aligning with SP in the previous election. Last time, the BJP-led NDA won 64 seats, while BSP and SP, as an alliance, won 10 and 5 seats, respectively. Congress, meanwhile, succeeded only in Rae Bareli.
Explore
as it spotlights the detailed projections.
If we revisit the vote share from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, BJP was ahead with 49.6%. BSP and SP followed, garnering 19.3% and 18%, respectively.
Let's delve into the seats each party could secure according to recent Exit Poll projections...
Source: aajtak
BJP+ takes lead once again in UP
According to exit poll figures, BJP+ could pocket between 67 to 72 seats in UP, while the opposition alliance (SP+ Congress+ TMC) might claim 8 to 12 seats. BSP, led by Mayawati, seems to be barely opening its tally with a slim chance of 0 to 1 seat, signifying a hard blow for the party. Congress might secure 1 to 3 seats with an anticipated 9% vote share.
The poll percentages show NDA (BJP+) leading with an estimated 49% of the vote share in UP, while the INDIA coalition could receive up to 39%. BSP might manage to attract close to 8% of the votes.
Source: aajtak
BSP faces hefty losses
The exit poll data does not seem to forecast any substantial setbacks for BJP when compared to 2019. However, taking the harshest blow is the BSP, which had triumphed in 10 constituencies previously, but is now struggling to make a mark in this election.
Source: aajtak
Outcome of the previous elections
In the last elections (2019), the BJP-led NDA recorded victories in 64 seats, with BJP securing 62 and its ally Apna Dal (S) winning 2. SP and BSP, who had contested jointly, bagged a total of 15 seats, with SP at 5 and BSP at 10. Congress, on the other hand, garnered success only in Rae Bareli, while Rahul Gandhi suffered a defeat in Amethi.
Reactions to the Exit Polls from politicians
Before the exit polls, SP's national president Akhilesh Yadav claimed that the INDIA alliance is set to form the government. He wrote on social media, 'Come June 4, Tuesday will usher in prosperity... INDIA's team and PDA's strategy are on the cusp of victory.'
Meanwhile, UP's Deputy CM Keshav expressed optimism about the exit polls: 'A storm for the lotus in the exit polls; INDIA alliance's claims fall flat. The results will be even more favorable on June 4. It's Modi government for the third time, aiming to cross 400 seats.'
INDIA coalition's meeting in Delhi has concluded with the Congress deciding to join today's televised exit poll debates. Congress leader Pawan Khera tweeted, 'After deliberating pros and cons, we have unanimously decided to expose BJP and its machinery's premeditated exit polls. All parties of INDIA will participate in tonight's exit poll discussions on television.'
The attention-grabbing VIP seats in UP
Discussing UP's VIP constituencies we have Varanasi (PM Modi), Rae Bareli (Rahul Gandhi), Amethi (Smriti Irani), Kannauj (Akhilesh Yadav), Lucknow (Rajnath Singh), Gorakhpur (Ravi Kishan), Azamgarh (Dharmendra Yadav), and Meerut (Arun Govil). Furthermore, constituencies like Pilibhit (where Varun Gandhi was dropped), Sultanpur (Maneka Gandhi), Muzaffarnagar (Sanjeev Balyan), Ballia (Neeraj Shekhar), and Nagina (Chandrashekhar) remain focal points of interest.
What about MP, Bihar, Delhi, and Uttarakhand?
According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, BJP seems to be advancing in Madhya Pradesh, projected to win all 29 seats.
In Bihar, a setback for NDA is on the horizon. The INDIA coalition is estimated to win 10 seats, which stands out compared to the previous elections where Congress only had Kishanganj and RJD had not secured any seats.
Source: aajtak
In Delhi, the capital city, BJP may capture 6-7 seats, while the INDIA coalition could take 0-1 seat. Moving to
Uttarakhand
, NDA is visible ahead with a 60% vote share, while INDIA might draw in 35%. All 5 seats in the state appear to be leaning towards BJP.
NDA poised to form the government again
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll signals another term for the NDA government. With the votes in for the country's 543 Lok Sabha seats, the crystal ball of exit polls has illuminated the likely outcomes. The poll hints at a sweeping victory for NDA with an estimated 361-401 seats, INDIA could secure 131-166, and others may get 8-20 seats.
The Most Accurate Exit Poll
Noteworthy is that the India Today-Axis My India exit poll has a reputation for being the most reliable. Since December 2013 to December 2023, it has conducted exit polls for 67 assembly elections and the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Out of these elections, 64 have witnessed accurate predictions from India Today-Axis My India.
For a pulse on the nation, India Today- Axis My India deployed 912 surveyors over 43 days, visiting 22,288 villages and cities. They canvassed 543 Lok Sabha and 3,607 assembly constituities, engaging in conversations with 5.8 lakh citizens.
