Following the Lok Sabha elections, Uttar Pradesh now turns its attention to by-elections across ten legislative assembly seats. The results have invigorated the Samajwadi Party (SP) and its leader Akhilesh Yadav to push forward with the PDA (Backwards, Dalits, and Minorities) alliance formula. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces the challenge of maintaining its reputation with a victorious outcome. In these elections, the Dalit vote could prove to be a significant factor. Both the BJP and SP are actively courting Dalit voters, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), traditionally distant from by-elections, is preparing to field candidates under the leadership of Mayawati.
By-elections set for ten seats
By-elections are on the horizon for ten assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. These include seats like Karhal in Mainpuri district and Milkipur in Faizabad, both of which became vacant following the resignation of elected MPs. In addition to the seats of Katehri, Kundarki, Ghaziabad, and Khair, by-elections will also be held for Phulpur, Meerapur, Majhwa, and Sisamau. Five of these seats were won by SP candidates in the 2022 elections, while BJP held three, the Nishad Party one, and Rashtriya Lok Dal led by Jayant Choudhary one.
What will be the issues at stake?
Development and local problems aside, the constitution and reservation are likely to be key issues. Following a decrease from 62 to 33 seats in the 2019 elections, BJP leaders attribute their loss to narratives crafted by the opposition around these issues. Dalit and OBC leaders raised these issues during a review meeting with national organization secretary BL Santosh. BJP leaders informed Santosh that the lack of reservation in outsourcing was a major reason behind their electoral defeat, as the Dalit community perceives it as the first step towards abolishing reservations. The success of the opposition in setting a narrative against BJP concerning the constitution has also been acknowledged by party leaders, adding to the challenge of countering the opposition's narrative.
Caste dynamics on the by-election seats
The caste equation varies among the seats facing by-elections. Milkipur is a predominantly Dalit constituency, reigned by SP's Avadhesh Prasad, a nine-time MLA. The Karhal assembly region in Mainpuri district has a majority Yadav population. Ghaziabad's seat is urban and is considered relatively easier for BJP. Phulpur has a significant Patel electorate, and in Meerapur, the results are largely influenced by Jat, Gurjar, and Muslim voters.
Yogi needs to demonstrate strength
Questions have been raised about the Yogi Adityanath-led government's working methods, indicating a diminishing impact of the 'Brand Yogi.' However, Chief Minister Yogi was not directly involved in the candidate selection for the Lok Sabha polls. The upcoming by-elections offer him an opportunity to prove that his influence in the state remains unshaken. If BJP performs poorly, there may be an intensification of opposition within the party.
Which way will Dalit voters lean?
In Uttar Pradesh, Dalits have traditionally been core voters of Mayawati's BSP, which has approximately a 19% vote share, mirroring the percentage of Dalits in the state. However, a shift has been observed in recent elections. BSP's vote share dipped well below 10% in the latest Lok Sabha elections, trailing even behind Congress. On the other hand, Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party witnessed a win in the Nagina seat. There's speculation that Dalits are distancing from BSP and might lean towards SP or BJP. BJP leaders themselves admitted during a review meeting that Dalits refrained from voting for them. It remains to be seen which direction Dalit votes will swing in the by-elections.
Will BJP return to its core issues of Hindutva and nationalism?
Post the Lok Sabha election debacle, BJP leaders have been silent on their earlier message of inclusiveness and trust. There's speculation whether the upcoming by-elections will see the party revert to its core agenda of Hindutva and nationalism. Senior journalist Dr. Shriram Tripathi believes that ruling parties typically hold an advantage in by-elections, and with Yogi Adityanath at the helm, Hindutva and nationalism will likely be integral to BJP's strategy, although efforts will focus more on countering the opposition's narrative around the constitution and reservation.
Will Milkipur become the site of revenge for Ayodhya's loss?
The Milkipur assembly seat, vacated by Avadhesh Prasad Pasi, will be a battleground for BJP to compensate for its loss in Faizabad during the Lok Sabha elections. Rumors suggest that Avadhesh Pasi's son, Ajit Prasad, might contest from SP.
What do the by-elections hold for Congress?
The by-elections on ten UP seats are crucial for Congress, seen from the perspective of the future of the SP-Congress alliance. While Congress is likely to contest only a few seats, the party aims to strengthen the 'pair of two boys from UP' and expand their voter base. Despite winning just one seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress is buoyed by its victory of six seats in the recent elections.
