The beginning of Trump's second term has been both intriguing and astonishing concerning China. During his first term and the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump maintained a very stern attitude toward China. However, after securing an election victory and before his inauguration on January 20, his mention of China diminished significantly. Instead, he intensified verbal attacks on countries like Canada, Greenland, and Panama.
Instead of continuing his hardened stance, Trump appears to be extending an olive branch. This includes inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration and welcoming China's special representative, Vice President J.D. Vance, alongside Vice President Han Zheng. Zheng also met with significant American business figures, including Tesla CEO and Trump's ally, Elon Musk, during the inauguration ceremony.
Reports suggest that Trump might visit China within the first 100 days of his term, a move starkly contrasting Biden's perspective on China.
Trump's Softening on China
Despite threats of imposing a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods during his campaign, Trump has not rushed into implementing this post-presidency. Instead, he's focused on tariffs for goods from Canada and Mexico, planning a 25 percent tariff from February 1. The administration is contemplating a mere 10 percent tariff on China.
Moreover, Trump shows a lenient stance on the TikTok issue, temporarily suspending its ban and emphasizing that “TikTok should be saved.”
Chinese experts view Trump’s soft demeanor optimistically, suggesting it indicates a willingness to reach some form of agreement with China. They propose that if China offers concessions beneficial to America and Trump, he might reconsider his policy.
The bigger question remains: Can Trump and Xi Jinping find middle ground? During Trump's first term, their meeting at the Mar-a-Lago estate exhibited potential for collaboration that crumbled within a year.
China's Strategic Inquiry
Some Chinese strategists remain skeptical of Trump's intentions. Professor Jin Canrong from Renmin University's School of International Relations, an expert on American affairs, asserts that Trump regards China as a significant competitor at heart. His cabinet is filled with ministers who have a stringent stance against China, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. While their strategy toward China may evolve or complicate further, their general attitude will not change easily.
Canrong explains that Trump's overtures towards China are strategic, indicating that he places the onus of improving Sino-American relations squarely on China.
Similarly, Zheng Yongnian, Dean at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Institute of Advanced Studies on Global and Contemporary China, contends that Trump will not cease tariff impositions on Chinese goods nor relinquish ambitions to dominate the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Chinese media articles suggest that Trump's recent overtures to Greenland, Canada, and Panama are linked to great power competition. By integrating these countries' resources, industries, and markets under American influence, Trump aims to eliminate China's role in U.S. manufacturing dependence and establish an independent industrial ecology.
An article on 'Guancha.com,' a popular Chinese news website, notes that America's military might will strategically increase to counter China's expanding military power, enhanced by Trump's ambition to acquire Greenland, home to a significant portion of the world's rare minerals.
The U.S.-China Power Dynamic
In the power game between the U.S. and China, the latter holds a strategic edge with its rare minerals essential to American needs. Yet, Chinese analysts argue that Trump seeks to bypass this barrier and create an independent supply chain free from Chinese influence for America's mineral needs. The success of Trump's endeavor remains uncertain.
Amid these developments, China's strategic community has issued an intriguing message regarding Trump 2.0 - China’s progress is unstoppable. China is set on a path to gaining a decisive advantage over the U.S., which can now only vent its frustrations on its subordinate countries. Their suggestion is for America to view China as an opportunity rather than a competitor and for India to compete for the runner-up position.
