The upcoming Lok Sabha elections saw BJP facing stiff opposition in Haryana with the Congress having a strong foothold and an alliance with AAP already on the table. Considering this, JJP's split from the coalition might appear to add to BJP's troubles. Yet, BJP seems to have pulled a political masterstroke ensuring a win-win situation for both parties. If Dushyant Chautala turns out to be a participant in this play, don't be surprised. Wrestling illusions have their place in politics, and discounting Haryana's political upheaval as merely a change of CM with Nayab Saini replacing Manohar Lal Khattar would be a mistake.
Why is the alliance split not digestible -
- No threat to the government falling, so who benefits?
- The alliance breaks, but no grievances aired by either side?
- JJP's insistence on Lok Sabha seats isn't significant enough for them to lose their state hold.
- JJP doesn't have a significant advantage over BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
- Most importantly, the corruption-scandal-embroiled Chautala family doesn't stand to benefit from distancing from BJP.
Until yesterday, Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala was sharing a stage with Prime Minister Modi. By evening, he was discussing his stakes in Hisar and Bhiwani Lok Sabha seats with JP Nadda. Come morning, news breaks that the JJP-BJP coalition has split and CM Manohar Lal Khattar has resigned. By evening, Nayab Saini is announced as the new CM.
The intriguing silence maintained by BJP and JJP during this whirlwind of events is especially noteworthy. It's a stark contrast to the uproar typically seen when governmental alliances falter, such as the recent scenario in Bihar between RJD and JDU, which hurled accusations galore. Several factors make BJP and JJP's souring relationship hard to swallow.
1. Will the corruption-charged Chautala family dare to oppose BJP?
Dushyant Chautala's father Ajay and grandfather Om Prakash were sentenced to ten years in prison by the Delhi High Court in 2013 for a teacher recruitment scandal. Their family has been through a litany of allegations and sentences, raising doubts about their ability to forge a political path independent of BJP.
2. JJP's discomfort with BJP during the farmer protests and female wrestler protests
As BJP's ally, JJP faced backlash during the farmer protests. Yet they remained steadfast with BJP throughout, even when female wrestlers protested. Now, with elections approaching, fear loomed that maintaining the alliance could make JJP the target of the Jat community's wrath, their core vote bank.
3. JJP contesting alone in Lok Sabha elections would harm Congress and benefit BJP
Haryana's politics have polarized into Jat versus non-Jat factions. With the JJP's split, they can now approach their Jat voters with confidence, without being seen as BJP's B-team, while preventing a one-sided flow of Jat votes to Congress.
4. JJP may rejoin the government after Lok Sabha elections
Being a pure regional party, JJP doesn't bear the burden of ideological ideals and can freely choose their allies. Just as they allied with BJP post-2019 Assembly elections, they may do so again if needed.
5. Alleged 'tiff' between JJP and BJP sidelining Congress in the electoral scene
While BJP and Congress remain major players in Haryana, regional parties have historically influenced electoral outcomes. As BJP forms a government and Dushyant Chautala becomes an enigma, all eyes are on JJP's next move, contributing to the marginalization of Congress.
