The promises of agreements and cooperation between India and China might be the most 'fragile'. Last year, agreements were made regarding patrolling on the LAC between the two countries. A spectacular meeting took place in October in the Russian city of Kazan between PM Modi and Xi Jinping. In parliament, the foreign minister also made statements about improving relations with China, followed by NSA Ajit Doval's visit to China. Such developments in a few months raised hopes for improvements in bilateral relations on all fronts. Yet again, China has dashed these hopes, entangling diplomatic relations with accusations and disputes.
The latest case involves China's move to create two counties in Ladakh and prepare to build the world's largest dam on the Brahmaputra River, reinforcing their expansionist policies of 'two steps forward, one step back.' This has been a recurring pattern observed over decades.
China recently declared plans to establish two new counties in the Hotan province, some of which reportedly fall within Ladakh. India has criticized this declaring it unacceptable, deeming China's claims entirely illegal in Indian territory.
The Brahmaputra scenario is about China's preparation to build a dam near Tibet, close to the Indian border. On December 25th, China sanctioned this, proposing it as the world's largest dam, with an expected cost of approximately 140 billion dollars. India has raised concerns over this massive plan, with ensuing clarifications from China.
This is not the first time the Brahmaputra has been a source of clash between India and China. Statements from both sides have marked past disputes. Let's understand why this river is central to potential 'water wars' between the world's most populous nations.
Source: aajtak
The Brahmaputra originates in Tibet near the sacred Mount Kailash by Lake Manasarovar, traversing through Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in India before entering Bangladesh where it merges with the Bay of Bengal. Known by various names— Luit in Assam, Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, Siang/Dihang in Arunachali, and Jamuna in Bengali— it stands as the world's ninth largest river by discharge and fifteenth longest by length.
The Brahmaputra is a lifeline for India, China, and Bangladesh. It is crucial for irrigation and transport, though also prone to seasonal flooding in the Himalayas. Numerous tributaries feed into it, amplifying its importance.
Traversing two densely populated countries and ending in Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra touches about 37% of the global population. Naturally, it becomes a hotbed for disputes. Globally, water wars echo those between Ethiopia-Egypt and Turkey-Iraq; the Brahmaputra dispute mirrors the water conflicts between India and China.
Source: aajtak
Combined, India and China account for 37% of the global population, yet only 11% of the world's freshwater is within these borders. This imbalance is exacerbated by pollution and the demands of growing economies.
China's urgency to address water crises stems from 23 million people lacking access to safe drinking water. Energy shortages plague many areas, making hydroelectric projects a necessity. About 60% of China’s groundwater is reportedly polluted, affecting its economic condition as highlighted in its 12th Five Year Plan.
Conversely, rivers are vital for India, directly impacting the livelihoods of millions. Specifically, the Brahmaputra benefits about 27 million people in Assam alone, holding cultural and strategic significance. Its importance lies in power generation and fishery as well as in India’s northeastern strategic framework.
The 2900 km long Brahmaputra flows roughly 1700 km through China, about 916 km downstream through India, meeting the Teesta River before reaching Bangladesh.
On December 25, China approved building the largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) in Tibet. With a capacity of 60,000 MW, it aims to produce thrice the electricity of the Three Gorges Dam. India has voiced apprehensions.
This project might affect millions in northeast India, impacting their livelihoods and ecology. Environmentalists have repeatedly expressed concerns over China's initiatives. India has strongly opposed this decision, with Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta raising objections, citing potential adverse impacts on neighboring rivers.
Source: aajtak
As per reports, China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) mentioned this project near the 'Great Bend' before entering Arunachal Pradesh at Medog County.
China asserts the project facilitates transition to non-traditional energy sources aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060, describing the Brahmaputra’s flow as ideal for such initiatives.
Utilizing the dam for hydroelectricity, China may also leverage it strategically. Escalating tensions with India could see China manipulating water flow to cause floods in border areas.
Concerns have been raised internationally about the proposed dam. India's opposition is informed by prior experiences. Previously, China constructed the 'Three Gorges Dam' on the Yangtze River, impacting over a million people and triggering frequent seismic activities in the region. The construction site on the Brahmaputra lies in a seismically susceptible Himalayan zone.
China has initiated several projects on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries. Since 1998 with the Yamdrok Hydropower Station, to the 2007 Zikong hydropower station, and the 2013, 2015 Zhangmu Dam, other projects were commissioned in 2019 and 2020. Over ten remain proposed.
In contrast, India started the Subansiri Dam in Arunachal Pradesh, though construction is currently paused. Previously, Ranganadi Dam (2001) and the Rangit Dam (2000) were constructed, while projects like Dibang Dam are pending.
