Will Rahul Gandhi forsake Wayanad or Rae Bareli? The suspense continues. During the election results on June 4, when questioned about it, Rahul indicated that a decision had yet to be made.
Rahul triumphed in Wayanad by a margin of 390,000 and in Rae Bareli by 364,000 votes. Even in 2019, he clinched a victory in Wayanad by over 400,000 votes. Since Wayanad's constituency was established after the 2009 delimitation, Congress has been victorious there, making it one of their safest seats.
However, looking at electoral history, South India has always been a 'booster dose' for Congress. Following the Emergency, when Indira Gandhi lost, South India orchestrated her return to power. Sonia Gandhi also launched her political journey from the South. Moreover, in the 2019 elections, where Rahul faced a setback in Uttar Pradesh's Amethi, he turned to Wayanad in South India. Furthermore, of the seats Congress won in the recent parliamentary elections, a substantial 42% were secured from South India.
How did Congress fare in South India?
This parliament election saw Congress win 99 seats, marking their best performance since the 2009 polls. Previously, they had reduced to 44 seats in 2014 and 52 in 2019.
This time, most of Congress's seats came from South India. Out of the 99, 42 were won in the South. Following this, 23 seats were claimed in western states such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Goa.
In the 2019 elections, Congress had also secured the majority of their seats from South India. Out of the 52 seats they won, 29 were from the South.
Source: aajtak
The Comeback of Indira Gandhi?
Historically, Congress has always been strong in South India. In the post-Emergency parliamentary elections of 1977, Congress dwindled to 154 seats, the lowest tally ever achieved by the party back then, with 60% or 93 seats coming from the South.
In Uttar Pradesh, not a single seat was won by Congress. Even Indira Gandhi suffered defeat in Rae Bareli to Raj Narain. Her subsequent return to parliament was facilitated by South India.
After the Rae Bareli defeat, a search commenced for a safe constituency for Indira Gandhi, which concluded in Karnataka's Chikmagalur. Following a bye-election, where Indira faced former Chief Minister Veerendra Patil as her opponent, the slogan 'One lioness versus a hundred langurs, Chikmagalur-Chikmagalur' coined by Congress leader Devaraj Urs, leveraged Indira Gandhi's parliamentary comeback. She triumphed over Patil with a margin of over 77,000 votes, leading to the forfeiture of the deposits of the 26 candidates who stood against her.
During the 1980 parliamentary elections, Indira Gandhi also contested from the Medak seat in Andhra Pradesh, winning with a margin greater than 200,000 votes.
Sonia's Political Career Also Began Here
After the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, Congress leaders appealed to Sonia Gandhi to lead the party. Initially resisting politics, Sonia eventually joined Congress years later.
A short time before the 1999 parliamentary elections, Sonia Gandhi became the party’s president. With her active entry into politics, the task was to get her elected to parliament. Two safe seats were identified – one in Uttar Pradesh and the other in Karnataka's Bellary.
Amethi was a sure win for Congress, but not leaving anything to chance, Sonia also contested from Bellary. Her candidacy for Bellary was announced last minute to prevent the BJP from responding.
When Sonia was about to file her nomination in Bellary, the BJP was alerted. In August 1999, BJP's then-secretary Venkaiah Naidu called Sushma Swaraj, who was the Chief Minister of Delhi at the time, and informed her she would be contesting from Bellary against Sonia. Swaraj did not wish to contest the parliamentary elections but could not refuse Naidu.
Swaraj filed her papers from Bellary, after which BJP promoted the narrative 'Foreign daughter-in-law versus the daughter of the country', highlighting Sonia's foreign origins. Despite these efforts, the results were disappointing for Swaraj, as Sonia defeated her by a margin of over 56,000 votes.
Sonia Gandhi won both from Bellary and Amethi but later resigned her Bellary seat.
Would leaving Wayanad be a risky move for Rahul?
Rahul Gandhi secured victories in both Rae Bareli and Wayanad for 2024. He will have to relinquish one of these seats. It remains unclear which one he will resign from.
Speculations were that the seat with the larger margin of victory would determine his choice. This was the formula used by Congress in 1999 when Sonia Gandhi picked Amethi over Bellary after winning Amethi by a three hundred thousand vote margin and Bellary by fifty-six thousand. Thus, she chose Amethi and gave up Bellary.
Rahul's victory margin in Wayanad this time around is nearly four hundred thousand. It is believed that due to the family legacy, Rahul might resign from Wayanad and choose Rae Bareli instead. However, Rahul leaving Wayanad might send the wrong message in South India. Discussions indicate that if Rahul opts out of Wayanad, Priyanka Gandhi might be fielded in a bye-election there.
