Political strategist Rahul Gandhi has decided to vacate the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, opting to represent Raebareli instead. At a recent press conference, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge revealed that Priyanka Gandhi will now be the official candidate in the impending by-election for Wayanad. It's noteworthy that Rahul Gandhi triumphed in both Wayanad and Raebareli during the latest general elections, securing impressive margins. This strategic move was unveiled at Kharge's New Delhi residence amidst top Congress leaders.
After Rahul Gandhi's unexpected defeat to BJP's Smriti Irani in Amethi in 2019, he was warmly welcomed by Wayanad to serve as their representative in the Indian parliament. The decision to relinquish support from Wayanad and pivot to Raebareli is a calculated message from Congress. 'This decision by Congress is a strong and well-thought-out political statement,' comments author and political analyst Rashid Kidwai to Aaj Tak.
According to Kidwai, Congress wants to capitalize on the coming years before the 2029 general elections. With Narendra Modi politically weakened compared to his stature in 2014 and 2019, and the current coalition government in power, the dual presence of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi in parliament energizes the opposition. Rahul Gandhi leading Congress' campaign in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections raises questions about his choice to be MP from Raebareli instead of Kerala's Wayanad. Here are five potential reasons for this strategic choice...
1) Regaining Foothold in Uttar Pradesh
In the 2024 general elections, Congress clinched six seats in Uttar Pradesh, a stark improvement from the solitary Raebareli seat in 2019. The India Block marked a significant achievement, winning 43 seats, predominantly claimed by the Samajwadi Party. The electoral shift dealt a mighty blow to the NDA, which had bagged 62 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2019. The BJP suffered a setback, securing just 33 seats in the 2024 ballot. Remarkably, the vote share of Mayawati's BSP plummeted from 19% to a meager 9%.
These votes primarily flowed towards the Samajwadi Party and, to an extent, Congress. Should Congress continue to attract support from the Dalit, Muslim, and Brahmin demographics, it stands to fortify its position in the state. Rahul Gandhi's preference for Raebareli over Wayanad seems to stem from this strategic calculation.
2) Tactical Reorientation and Aggressiveness
Buoyed by the election results, Congress has now adopted an aggressive posture. Rahul Gandhi's perseverance in Raebareli while vacating his Wayanad seat signals a more assertive direction for the party. Kidwai suggests a significant shift in Congress' strategy, transitioning from defense to offense. They are now vying to strengthen their ground where their rival, the BJP, has a strong foothold, particularly in the Hindi heartland, despite their attempts in the south.
'Congress is in search of potential prospects in the Hindi belt, aiming to scale up their efforts in Uttar Pradesh,' Kidwai adds. Geopolitically, Uttar Pradesh is pivotal; earning more seats in this state could also influence the electoral game in Bihar, where Congress is allied with the RJD.
3) Revitalization of Congress in India’s Political Landscape
The adage that the road to national governance leads through Uttar Pradesh rings true for Congress. A pilgrimage to political relevance in Uttar Pradesh could herald a nationwide resurgence for the party. The six-seat victory, although partially credited to its alliance with the Samajwadi Party, still bodes well for Congress. The tilt of Jat voters in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana towards Congress, despite the alliance between Jat leader Jayant Chaudhary and the NDA, is another promising sign for the party's revival.
4) To Win the Heartland Is to Win the Nation's Heart
For Congress, winning the Hindi heartland is crucial not only independently but also in potential coalitions to outflank the BJP. States encompassing the Hindi belt hold 218 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, an arena where Congress needs to upscale its performance significantly. Notable improvement in states like Haryana and Rajasthan during the last elections strengthens this strategy.
5) Priyanka Gandhi's Wayanad Bid to Consolidate Kerala
The 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election looms, with Congress aiming to seize power. Kerala's electorate tends to oscillate between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-headed UDF. Despite the CPI(M)'s setback in the 2024 general elections, Congress emerged victorious in 14 out of 20 Lok Sabha seats, a precursor to their prospects in the upcoming state elections. Priyanka Gandhi stepping into Wayanad could accelerate Congress' campaign, with Rashid Kidwai expressing optimism towards the party's prospects in Kerala.
