Known as PK, political strategist Prashant Kishor is not currently campaigning for any political party. He's devoted to his 'Jan Suraaj' campaign in Bihar, yet his predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha election results are sparking intense discussion, even trending on social media following an interview.
Prashant Kishor asserts that his forecast for the BJP's seats will be as accurate as the outcomes of the 2021 West Bengal elections. Intriguingly, back then, Kishor had made predictions about the BJP's seats as well - although he stated that defeating the BJP in 2024 was not impossible.
Kishor claims that when the results of the Lok Sabha elections will be announced on June 4th, the BJP will cross the 300-seat mark. This claim of his talks about falling short by 100 seats in comparison to the BJP's 'Next time, 400' campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Next year, Bihar will have its assembly elections, and Kishor is also predicting a Jan Suraaj government - not BJP, JDU, or RJD - in 2025. Here we explore why Kishor's claim of the Jan Suraaj coming to power instead of the BJP seems more credible.
Predictions by PK for Lok Sabha Election 2024 Results
'The moment PM Modi said that the BJP will get 370 seats... and NDA will cross 400, I said it's not possible... It's just rally cries to boost workers' morale,' explains Prashant Kishor. He believes achieving 370 seats is impossible for the BJP, but it's certain the party won't dip below 270. He feels the BJP will successfully secure close to or slightly more than the 303 seats it gained in the previous Lok Sabha election.
Prashant Kishor sees no widespread anger against PM Narendra Modi's government at the center. It seemed one-sided until election announcements were made, but he also observed signs that things were not going as planned for Modi-Shah, becoming evident in their speeches.
The strategist had also forecasted the West Bengal assembly elections in 2021 with remarkable precision. Now he's using the same reference, claiming skeptics were proven wrong back then too.
'I previously said about Bengal... BJP won't win over 100 seats... No one trusted my prediction back then... However, when results came out, everyone was surprised... BJP got 77 seats,' he recounts.
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Prashant Kishor references the 2019 general elections where the majority of the BJP's 303 seats were from the North and West regions... Is the BJP facing losses in these areas? In the East and South, BJP has nearly 50 seats.
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The opposition is aiming for 20 to 25 seats in Maharashtra. Even if they win these many, it won't harm the BJP - owning to their current 23 out of 48 in the state.
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Prashant Kishor puts forth similar arguments about UP. 'In comparison to 2014, the BJP faced a loss of 25 seats combining Bihar and UP in 2019. Fighting with SP and BSP made BJP drop from 73 to 62, yet they compensated by gaining in Bengal.'
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In states like Rajasthan and Haryana, he sees a potential loss of 2-5 seats for the BJP. He doesn't find the opposition gaining enough traction to cause a significant upset. With possible losses capped at 50 seats in the North and West, the BJP could make up for it in the East and South regions.
Prashant Kishor's Predictions Related to Bihar Assembly Election 2025
Bihar is headed for elections next year. BJP has already been strategizing to clinch a win. Amit Shah has stated that post the Lok Sabha polls, BJP's stand will be clear, but the Chief Minister in 2025 will be from BJP.
Prashant Kishor is on a two-year campaign in Bihar with 'Jan Suraaj,' promising the next government will be his. He's asserting they'll run solo - no coalitions. He challenges, 'I can write it down... Jan Suraaj will win on its own in 2025... and if it doesn't, you can question me.'
His confidence stems from his previous election strategies in West Bengal and Delhi, both successful campaigns. Although he's not on the ground for the Lok Sabha election, he might have sources; yet his Lok Sabha claim lacks the certainty of the Bengal elections - that's the biggest reason not to rely solely on these predictions yet.
But in the ever-swinging political season, even wild guesses can hit the bullseye!
